Detroit — For the first time in 66 years, Detroit’s population increased, according to new Census Bureau estimates for 2023, which Mayor Mike Duggan hailed as “a day of celebration” for Michigan’s largest city.
Detroit gained 1,852 residents between July 1, 2022 and July 1, 2023, according to new U.S. Census Bureau data released Thursday, bringing the city’s population to 633,218. It’s the first time the city has grown year over year since 1957, Duggan said.
“That was the goal of our administration when I started in 2014, to grow,” Duggan told the Detroit News. “It’s taken 10 years, but we’re here. It’s a day to celebrate.”
It’s a far cry from just a year ago, when Duggan called the Census Bureau a “clown show,” accusing it of undercounting the city’s population. On Wednesday, Duggan pointed out that the office has been updating these numbers over the past year — the initial measurement for 2022 was 620,376, while the latest update puts the city at 631,366 in 2022.
Detroit saw the most growth in actual population of any city in Michigan, beating out East Lansing, which gained 1,266 residents during the same period.
However, the city’s population is still down from 2020, when the federal government conducted a rigorous count of residents with field workers. Since April 1, 2020 – the official day of the decennial census – the office estimates that the city has lost more than 6,200 people.
When asked about these numbers, Duggan pointed to year-over-year growth figures.
“This is the first year the Census Bureau has recognized our growth,” he said, noting apartments under construction in the city, homes being renovated and more. “I think when you drive around town you can feel the dynamism.”
Duggan made it a point early on as mayor to be measured by Detroit’s population growth. He said in 2014, as he began his first term, that he “would be judged on one thing: whether the administration could reverse this trend.”
As he began his second term in January 2018, the mayor said updated numbers were expected in the spring showing the city gained in population in 2017, but that did not happen. When Duggan took office on January 1, 2014, the city’s population was approximately 680,000.
“I always thought a mayor should be judged by more people who are moving in or out,” Duggan said Wednesday. “It took longer than I would have liked, but if you look anywhere in the city right now, apartments are being built. People are renovating their homes and moving in.”
Is Detroit’s population underestimated?
Kurt Metzger, a demographer who has studied Detroit extensively and director emeritus of Data Driven Detroit, said he would estimate Detroit to be closer to 650,000 residents, perhaps even as high as 660,000. He pointed to the increased construction and much more as signs of positive change and population growth for the city.
“The city has been gaining population for years, but it’s never shown,” Metzger said of the office’s numbers. “It’s going to accelerate, and the 2024 numbers will show much higher growth. It’s going to accelerate over the next few years.”
Metzger argued that the Census Bureau had undercounted the city for years, largely because of the way it counted demolitions relative to population. In many cities, demolitions represent a loss of population. But in Detroit, demolitions are often simply the removal of buildings that have been abandoned for years, Metzger said.
The city’s constant challenges to the Census Bureau’s estimates are working, he added. Updating the numbers for 2022 is a result of that, Metzger said, and the office needing to better understand what demolition means in Detroit.
“We’re finally getting them to listen,” he said. “Last year’s growth was real, and it was probably even stronger. We’re making up for what was missed, sure, but it was growth.”
How other cities are doing
Detroit is far from the only major Michigan city to lose residents since 2020. Many of Michigan’s largest communities have declined over the same period: Grand Rapids, Michigan’s second-most populous city, has declined by 1.15% to 196,608 from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2023, while Warren, the state’s third-largest city, fell 2% to 136,655 residents during the same period.
Nine of Michigan’s 10 largest cities saw at least some decline in the three years since 2020. Macomb Township was the exception, gaining 480 residents to 92,747, or about 1.19%.
Largely, some of the state’s smaller communities have grown since 2020, helping to slow the state’s population decline. Like Detroit, Michigan has declined since 2020 — when it had a population of 10,077,674 — but increased between 2022 and 2023 to 10,037,261. About two-thirds of all Michiganders live in cities with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants, a rate higher than the national average of around 61%.
The place that saw the largest percentage growth between 2020 and 2023 was Springdale Township in Manistee County in northwest Michigan, according to the Census Bureau. It increased by 43.85%, from 853 people in 2020 to 1,227 in 2023, a growth of 374 people.
Some local officials were surprised to learn of this development. But Springdale Township Clerk Penny Nelson said the increase in registered voters in recent years shows that’s true.
“Statistics don’t lie,” Nelson said. “There are more people here. These are people who live here, and they are snowbirds. We have people who build vacation homes and stay here, but they work downstate.”
There are many reasons people might choose Springdale Township, she said. Taxes are low and the township is close to vacation destinations such as Crystal Mountain. Even if people wanted to expand, they probably couldn’t: The township’s infrastructure is built for a small community, not a large subdivision, Nelson said.
It’s not perfect, she said: There’s one road that could probably be repaved. For shopping, she travels about 40 minutes to Traverse City. An avid consumer herself, she joked that cities like hers help keep Amazon in business.
But being in a small town provides a break that other places can’t, Nelson said. She and her husband were both originally from Chicago before moving to Walled Lake and eventually ending up in Springdale Township.
“People are tired of big cities,” Nelson said. “Just driving through upstate drives me crazy, and then I come back here and it’s a nice place to live. I think in big cities people look around and wonder, ‘Is Is this the life I want to live? What are my values? ‘Here you can acquire a beautiful property and really enjoy the space. »
What’s Driving Small Town Growth
That’s probably what drives many people to small towns, said Reynolds Farley, a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan’s Center for Population Studies. The expenses of living in larger communities may be too much for people. Housing, in particular, has become expensive, especially near cities, causing people to leave, Reynolds said.
But Michigan remains more affordable than many other states, he said. The state itself is relatively financially secure and the environment is “attractive,” Farley said. Growth in small towns is a good sign for Michigan and what’s to come, he said.
“I think people want to be where they’re welcome,” Farley said. “For some people, it’s Detroit with its amenities, and for others, it’s a small city with low taxes and available land. Michigan has something for everyone.”
hharding@detroitnews.com
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