December 25, 2023
Christmas Evening Update
I hope you had a great vacation and wanted to quickly update a few things for this vacation week. Winds will blow from the East overnight to bring moisture and produce dense fog near coastal areas. There is a dense fog advisory for Delmarva to the coast, but there will be fog around the bay and in the northern hills. This will prepare us for a few wet days.
The heaviest rain will fall on Wednesday, then lingering showers on Thursday.
The pattern will start from the top and become cooler. I don’t see arctic air yet, but I see adjustment signals, which play into our El Niño-related winter expectations. These typically bring a mild December, followed by the winter pattern of January and February.
No white Christmas: no problem
It’s not as common as you might imagine. So not having snow this year is not a problem because it has no correlation with the rest of the season.
This great storm is the driving force of millions of people. We are on the warm and soon to be humid side. Atlantic winds will bring fog and fuel incoming rain.
Blizzard warnings on reverse for Nebraska and South Dakota.
Dense fog warning
This includes Kent, Queen Annes and Caroline counties in Maryland, all counties in Delaware, SE PA and New Jersey: visibility may be less than 1/4 mile.
There may also be fog in central Maryland and southern PA, but not as thick!
Tuesday morning weather
Winds will be light, but from the east with lots of humidity.
The day will start out in the low to mid 40s for most of our area.
Radar simulation at 7 a.m.
Rain will move across the mountains from the west, while fog will be near and east of the Chesapeake Bay.
Radar simulation from 7:00 a.m. to midnight
Rain will be more likely in central Maryland, the mountains and to the north. Often we see more rain than indicated on this product, so I always expect showers even south of Baltimore.
Wider view of the storm
From Tuesday morning to Thursday morning
The heaviest rains will fall on this day. There could also be brief thunderstorms.
Jet Stream from Thursday morning to next Tuesday morning
Change appears. It’s NOT arctic air, but it will be colder with a few more pulses to lock us in for January.
Once the storm passes, the transition to colder air will occur Friday afternoon.
As the new year begins, we see an upper level low pass to our south. I like the model and still see some room for this to move north. NOT seeing a weather event now may work to our advantage, as coordination could break down better than seen here in 9 days.
If we can get some form of snow or wintry weather I would start looking here.
This is just a guide for the new year.
Plans for the Ravens game and New Year’s Eve celebration should have quiet weather.
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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:
My winter outlook: more snow
El Ninoto Winter updates
Late November: Warm waters moving westward into the Pacific could mean more snow in the eastern U.S.
Computer models support East Coast storm tracks
El Niño Warning
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Perhaps HISTORICAL! This refers to temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the path of winter storms in the United States.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and More Nature Signals for Snow.
NOAA Winter 2024 Outlook
2024 winter outlook from two farmers’ almanacs, return to cold and snow
History of Maryland’s Snow Climate and Other Winter Pages
STEM Assemblies/School Field Trips are Back
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Please share your thoughts and your best weather photos/videos, or just stay in touch via social media
REPRESENT MY MESSAGE ON DYSLEXIA
I am aware that there are some spelling and grammatical errors and other occasional issues. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer problems that I might miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my degree in Meteorology and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and that I should not let this be a crutch for the future. It was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice and makes the situation worse. I can also make mistakes in the forecasts. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. “Wordy” stuff can get sticky. No editor can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send in a newsworthy calendar. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team who helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when available. This could be AFTER reading this. I accept this and perhaps prove that what you read really comes from me… It’s part of my charm.
Gn En usa