Demand for new iPad Pros will likely be low for two reasons: TrendForce

One might expect the introduction of early OLED displays and the ultra-thin form factor to drive strong demand for the iPad Pro, but a new forecast from market intelligence company TrendForce suggests that it might actually be lower than last year.

The company predicts that total shipments of the latest iPad Pro models “will only reach between 4.5 and 5 million units in 2024” – which would be down from 2023. It gives two reasons for this pessimistic picture…

New iPad Pro models – thinner, OLED, M4 chip

When Apple announced the new iPad Pro models yesterday, there were three key improvements over previous versions:

• Thinner form factor
• OLED displays
• M4 chip

Demand expected to be relatively low

TrendForce estimates that total iPad Pro demand this year will be between 4.5 million and 5 million units, which would actually represent a year-over-year decline in demand, despite the new features.

The company gives two reasons for this, the first of which is price. The new models received a $200 increase in starting price (but with double the storage) and additionally require the all-new Magic Keyboard and Apple Pencil Pro accessories. This makes the total cost of the upgrade very Dear.

But the second factor is the launch of the 13-inch iPad Air. I said earlier that I considered this huge news.

For the first time, iPad buyers are no longer forced to pay for Pro features they don’t need just to get a bigger screen.

TrendForce agrees.

The introduction of a 13-inch iPad Air could potentially dilute consumer interest, affecting demand for other models (including the new iPad Pro).

But Apple will still take half the market

The company says that while demand may be lower than some think, the total size of the OLED iPad market is small, so Apple will take about half of it.

The total shipment of AMOLED tablets is expected to reach approximately 9 million units in 2024, accounting for approximately 7% of the tablet market.

Photo: Apple