Decision day before the court for French presidential hopes

Marine France Le Pen faces Monday to make a moment of makeup, because a judge indicates whether it should be prohibited from the next presidential election.

The right leader, who is ahead of all his rivals in the 2027 race, will be in court at 10:00 am for the verdict of Party financing trials targeting its National Rallye Party (RN).

At the conclusion of the trial in November, the state prosecutor demanded guilt for Le Pen and 24 other accused of using the EU parliamentary money to pay the wages of the parties.

But to everyone’s surprise, the prosecutor also said that Le Pen’s sanction should not only be a fine and a prison sentence of € 300,000 (£ 250,000), but also Inongibility of the current for a.

Above all, he said that ineligibility should launch immediately – and not be suspended while waiting for the appeal that Marine Le Pen should deposit if she is condemned.

The three judges are not obliged to follow the prosecutor’s recommendations.

But if they do, it would mean that Le Pen, which has 56 be in a presidential election in which she is tilted as a potential winner.

“It is my political death they are looking for,” she said in November.

Many French commentators – and not only those who support Le Pen – have warned of serious consequences for democracy if the judiciary is considered to be interfering in the choice of the head of the country.

“The judicial system has the fate of Marine Le Pen in her hands … so that she is condemned for everything is perfectly normal. But preventing him from presenting himself to the presidential election (election)-that is another case,” wrote a veteran analyst Franz-Olivier Giesbert in Center-Right Le Point magazine.

“Is it not dangerous – not to say perilous – to give judges the task of determining whether this candidate has the ability to present himself in the elections?” Sunday, said Bruno Thursday, editor -in -chief of the tribune newspaper on Sunday.

Marine Le Pen told the same newspaper: “Personally, I am not nervous. But I can see why people think I could be. The judges have the power of life or death on the movement. But I don’t think they will go so far as to do it.”

Various scenarios for the verdict are under control.

First, Le Pen could be forced to blame in the EU parliamentary money affair. This is widely considered improbable.

Second, judges could condemn it but make ineligibility non -automatic. In this case, it would appeal immediately and ineligibility would only apply after a second trial (and conceivablely a third party at the High Court of Appeal).

This would leave her free to present herself in 2027, but with the handicap of a conviction for abuse of public funds. However, it is far from being clear that a conviction would cause him a lot of damage, given the series of scandals of funding parties that have affected all the French parts over the years.

Third, the judges could follow the prosecutor and command automatic ineligibility. In this case, she would appeal and the other parties of the sentence (fine and prison) would be suspended. However, she would not be able to run in 2027.

Fourth, the court could give it a shorter term of automatic ineligibility – say a year – which makes it theoretically possible for it to run.

2027 would be the fourth presidential race of Marine Le Pen, and that to offer the greatest chance of victory.

A survey in the right -wing JDD newspaper JDD gave him between 34 and 37% of the first round vote, well in advance on one of his possible competitors.

During the last two presidential elections, she fell in fault with the two -round system which allowed the opponents of the left, the center and the right to Rally behind a single candidate – Emmanuel Macron – to prevent him from being able.

But years of “detoxification” after having overshadowed his father Jean-Marie Le Pen at the head of the party made the anti-RN vote much less coherent than before, while the victories for the hard right in other countries have helped to raise the taboo of a interrogation government.

If the pen is excluded to runHis logical replacement would be Jordan Bardella, the president of the 29 -year -old party who was treated to be his possible Prime Minister.

However, party initiates admit that there was little internal preparation for what would be largely considered as a huge and destabilizing political earthquake.

A result of Le Pen’s statement unable to present itself in 2027 could be to further weaken the minority minority government of Prime Minister François Bayrou. With 120 members in the National Assembly, the RN has the power to vote with the left in a Vote without confidence to bring down the government.

So far, Marine Le Pen has retained her troops. She could feel less inclined, if she feels that she has been the victim of an establishment seam.