Basic overview
It’s been a tough week for crude oil, with prices falling more than 6% on renewed growth concerns and some disappointing U.S. data. OPEC+’s delay in increasing production compared to October didn’t trigger a rebound, but helped slow the downward momentum.
Much now depends on today’s US NFP report, as strong data should trigger a relief rally, while weak numbers will likely increase bearish momentum on recession fears.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Time Frame
Daily Crude Oil
On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil has broken below the recent low around the 71.60 level and extended the decline to the 69-mark. If the selling extends further, we can expect buyers to step in around the 67.68 level to position themselves for a bounce back towards the 71.60 level. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price decline to increase bearish bets at the 64-level support area.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Time Frame
Crude oil 4 hours
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that we have a falling trendline defining the bearish momentum. We can expect sellers to continue to rely on the trendline to position themselves for further decline, while buyers will want to see the price break higher to start targeting new highs.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame
Crude oil 1 hour
On the hourly chart, we can see that the bearish momentum has faded a bit as price action has become range-bound. Today we have the US NFP report and strong numbers will likely trigger a rally, while weak data could increase the bearish momentum. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Catalysts to come
Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the consensus forecast is for 160,000 jobs created and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
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