A once politically far-fetched question — whether President Biden can be replaced as the Democratic presidential candidate — has taken on new urgency after Mr. Biden’s faltering debate performance against former President Donald J. Trump.
The short answer is yes – assuming Mr. Biden decides on his own to step down. But if Mr. Biden decides not to step down, the short answer is probably no.
Either way, the process would be complicated and open the door to political upheaval by the time Democratic delegates meet to vote on a nominee at their convention in August.
Mr. Biden has the power to exit the race and release all the delegates he has promised to nominate — 3,894 of 3,937 so far, according to an Associated Press tally — during his march to the ‘inauguration. If he did so, those delegates would be free to vote for whoever they want. This would lead to an open convention, a rarity in modern American politics.
This prospect raises many questions.
Could President Biden, if he decided to drop out of the race, force his delegates to support a candidate of his choice?
No. He could certainly endorse a successor, and that would count for something. But once the delegates are free, they are free. The loyalty to Mr. Biden, which runs deep, does not automatically extend beyond him. And there could be a fight in Congress over who emerges as the nominee, exposing the party’s already entrenched ideological divisions and potentially weakening a future Democratic candidate heading into the fall campaign.
What would this mean for Vice President Kamala Harris?
Ms. Harris would likely be one of six candidates vying for the presidential nomination, but her standing within the party is questionable after what many saw as a difficult term and weak poll numbers. Nor would she be guaranteed second place on the ticket, even if she wanted to, if Mr. Biden were replaced.
What is the deadline for making a decision?
If Democrats have one positive to say about Mr Biden’s disastrous performance in the debates, it is that they took place in June, rather than in the weeks leading up to the election, when debates traditionally take place.
It is time to act, which would not have been the case if it had happened during a debate in September.
The nominating convention in Chicago opens August 19. But the party approved rules to hold a virtual roll call before Aug. 7, to circumvent an Ohio law that requires all presidential candidates to be legally certified by that date to be eligible to appear on the state ballot. november. So we’re basically talking about a five-week window.
A total of 3,934 pledged delegates will vote in the first round of voting. If a candidate obtains a simple majority of 1,968 votes, that person will be the nominated candidate.
If Mr. Biden resists pressure to step down, is there any way the party can unilaterally replace him?
Well, never say never. It would appear that there is some wiggle room in the official party rules. “All delegates to the National Convention committed to a presidential candidate must, in good conscience, reflect the feelings of those who elected them,” they read.
So, in theory – note the words “in good conscience” – it would seem that the Democratic convention could vote for someone else.
But this is not the Democratic Party of 1968, when the rules allowed party leaders to impose their will. In fact, the rules were rewritten after that specifically to make the party a much more fluid organization.
“These are not the good old days anymore,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, and an expert on convention rules and procedures. “There are no party leaders. No one has the power to remove that nomination.”
“The only way this could happen without Biden’s consent would be if a majority of about 4,000 delegates decided that he should not be the nominee, that they have someone better,” he said. -she declared.
Who could be considered to replace him?
In addition to Harris, there are Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan; Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania; Governor Gavin Newsom of California; Governor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois; and Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Also worth mentioning are Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey.
What would happen if Mr. Biden withdrew after the convention?
The Democratic National Committee’s official procedures for the convention, adopted in 2022, give the committee the authority to choose a new candidate if one of the members of the ticket – the presidential or vice-presidential candidate – withdraws or dies .
Party national chairman Jaime Harrison would consult with Democratic leaders in Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and report back to the DNC, but members themselves would have the final say.
Maggie Astor contributed reporting.
News Source : www.nytimes.com
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