Contributor: the California population bump will not compensate for its long -term slide

When the US Census Bureau recently revealed a small increase in the population of California, it was a welcome sign for some that the State was reconstructed. The data even shown a slightly reduced level of migration.

Good news, right? Unfortunately, not good enough.

The statement of last year always leaves the number of the State below their position in 2020, and its growth rate is lower than the national average and much lower than that of the main competing states: the comparison of census numbers from 2010 to 2024, the California population increased by less than 6%; In Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Utah, increases vary from 15% to almost 30%.

And the prognosis for the future growth of California is not good, since most of the recent increase seems to have been the result of Historical immigration push During the years Biden. Under President Trump, the door of many new arrivals born abroad was closed.

Although some companies and immigration supporters are Trump’s actions, it is not as if a large number of immigrants are still a plus. The Congress Budget Office In 2024, the increases of immigrants in the United States are favorable to the economy overall, but the new current arrivals seem to come from the poorest countries, many are undocumented and, in the short term, which could exercise stress on local economies and on wages of wages of wages low -income workers which compete with them for the living space, jobs and social services.

Worse still for California, the slight decrease in last year’s migration is not close to what has been an exodus of several decades.

The figures tell the story. From 2020 to 2024, the state added 934,000 international migrants, against a net loss of interior migration of 1.46 million residents. California migration has come to look like a long -term motif in rust belt states. Over the past 24 years, More than 4 million net national migrantsA population roughly the same as the metropolitan region of Seattle, have moved to other parties of the Nation of California.

State planners do not see any reversal in sight either. Consider that in 2007, demographers planned that the population of California would drop from 36.5 million to 60 million by 2050. But today, the projection of 2050 is only 40 million Californians.

People leave or do not come to California, for rational reasons – and most of them are economic. A 2020 study have shown that minorities, including AsianLatino and black, generally benefit from higher real income and property in the south or in certain cities of the heart than in metros of the East or West coast. These groups clashed in Dallas, Houston, Atlanta or Miami rather than in California looking for opportunities. Even given the influx of immigrants in California, the population born abroad of the cities of Texas, Florida and certain parts of Ohio, North Carolina and Tennessee increased more quickly than that of San Francisco, and the figures born abroad of the are declining.

Long a tag for young and ambitious in particular, today California ranks down By attracting all new arrivals from other parts of the country. Rather, a lot Young wealthy professionals migrate outside the state. In 2022, California lost more than 200,000 net migrants aged 25 or over, including most of the four -year or partner diplomas, while this cohort The figures have increased in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Florida and Carolines.

A recent survey has identified the best five regions for young job seekers; Four of the five were in the south. Many young people, thinking of their future life, choose areas where family training is higherLike Utah, Texas and, once again, the southern states. From 2008 to 2022, the fertility rate of California (the number of children that a woman will have in her lifetime) has gone from the highest 17th in the country to the 40th.

This suggests that California competitors will continue to add workers faster in the future than the Golden State. California still has the most born residents abroad in the United States and it dominates in terms of end, including retirees, but even this demographic group is evolving. Last year, the Wall Street Journal reported on IRS data for 2022 which showed that wealthy migrants withdrew nearly $ 24 billion from California, in parallel with losses in states such as New York, Illinois and New Jersey.

For Angelenos which are stuck in the bumper motorway trafficking in bumper every day, the prospect of a decrease in the population may seem attractive. However, the decrease in the population and the details of who leave or do not come suggest that the state will face risky deficits all over the line. Fewer young energetic residents – and their children – do not make a bright future. As John Maynard Keynes Said challenges of overcrowding, the “chaining of the only devil can, if we are carefree, are not used to lose another even more fierce and more insoluble”.

California is already undergoing a significant shortage of skilled workers who should get worse. Companies do not invest where workers are not easily available.

The state must tackle the reasons for its declining attractions. Its safety and wealth creation machine for ordinary citizens is blocked, largely due to housing costs. Add to this reduced economic opportunity and long -term stagnation seems guaranteed.

The young energy that has made the state the most remarkable region on the planet is not a fact. It’s time to stop and read the data and understand how to restore the promise of our other Golden State.

Joel Kotkin is a contributor to opinion, the presidential scholarship holder for Urban Futures at Chapman University and principal researcher at the Civitas Institute of the University of Texas in Austin.