Early forecasts from Colorado State University for the 2024 hurricane season show what could be a busy time for forecasters, with about 23 named storms expected to form in the Atlantic basin and nearly half expected to form. in hurricanes.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU, said his team has more confidence in this year’s outlook than in previous April releases because of the state of the atmosphere and other favorable signals .
In the report, the team highlighted states and regions where the risk of a cyclone is higher or lower than the climatological probabilities.
The outlook puts the chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coast at 62%, while the chance of a hurricane hitting the Caribbean was highest at 66%.
In the Lower 48, CSU said it is almost guaranteed that at least one cyclone will pass within 50 miles of Florida during the season, with the New England states having the least likelihood.
The odds in all coastal states are about 10 to 20 percent higher than what is considered average, with Alabama seeing the largest increase.
The researchers said landfall probabilities are linked to the expected accumulated cyclone energy, commonly known as the ACE index.
The ACE value of a tropical cyclone is calculated based on the maximum six-hour sustained wind speed and the longevity of the storm.
A cyclone that lasts longer with strong, sustained winds will have a higher ACE value than a cyclone that forms and disintegrates quickly.
During the 2024 season, researchers expect the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean to produce an ACE value of 210, or 170% of what an average season would produce.
Nearly 60% of the total ACE is expected to occur west of 60°W longitude, where almost all of the population affected by tropical storms and hurricanes in the basin is located.
“When there is an El Niño like last year, generally the pattern of storms is to hit before they reach the islands and before they reach the United States. United,” said Bryan Norcross, FOX hurricane weather specialist.
“Now that we’ve moved into La Niña this year, the colder waters in the Pacific tend to create a phenomenon that allows storms to come a little further west and also more likely bring them into the Caribbean. And of course, once the storm reaches the Caribbean, it sometimes moves up into the Gulf and affects Florida, etc.
Reduced or increased probability does not guarantee or exclude an area against a direct strike.
In 2023, the chance of the Florida Panhandle being hit by a major storm was only 28%, but it was the only region in the country hit by a significant cyclone.
“At the end of the day, if you live in a hurricane zone, you can’t turn your brain off to hurricanes. And this is the time of year to make sure you’re doing the big things to figure out how you’re going to protect your home,” Norcross said.
New York Post
