Last week I advocated adding UC Irvine to your portfolio for the future of college baseball. The veteran Anteaters are still in the 60/1 range heading into Selection Monday.
Dallas Baptist, another plucky outsider, enjoys the same prize. The Patriots have a dominant ace in 6-foot-6 Ryan Johnson. The imposing right-hander mows down 13.45 batters per nine innings, making him one of the most prolific strikeout artists in the country.
While it’s nice to have a few dark horses on your dance card, the reality is that the cream usually rises to the top.
Six of the last seven national champions were in the top 15 heading into the playoffs.
So to balance out my two underdog picks, I’m taking a true baseball blue blood to win it all – Georgia at 25/1 (DraftKings).
The Dawgs handled the SEC situation, winning 17 of 30 conference games, while establishing a formidable home-court advantage (29-5). This should help them avoid landmines as they hold a regional meeting in Athens next weekend.
Their dynamic lineup ranks in the top five in on-base and slugging percentage. They have gotten better as the season has gone on, and that also applies to their ace Kolten Smith.
Smith has shown flashes of brilliance over the past couple of months. In three of his last seven starts, he’s had double-digit strikeouts, including 11 in a road win at Texas A&M.
Finally, a stat that I consider gold-plated in the world of college baseball – road RPI – is squarely in the Dawgs’ favor. They’re third in that department, which basically means they won’t blink if they have to win an away Super Regional.
It’s Wes Johnson’s first year as Georgia’s manager, but his fingerprints are all over this club, especially among the pitching staff.
As a journeyman pitching coach, Johnson broke through in the mid-2010s with Dallas Baptist, Mississippi State and Arkansas. He was a bit of a pioneer in advanced stats and impressed enough people to get an extremely rare deal.
The Minnesota Twins plucked him straight from the college ranks and made him their pitching coach. It was a move that helped the struggling Twins immensely and boosted Johnson’s career.
When he arrived, the Twins were coming off a losing campaign in which their staff was regularly bombarded (22nd in team ERA). In the first year under Johnson, the staff’s ERA improved to ninth, then to fourth the following season.
Johnson seems to be working his magic with Smith at the top of his rotation. The sophomore’s low expected FIP indicates his performance on the bump is better than his ERA might suggest.
He has an extensive pitch repertoire, using his cutter, slider, fastball, changeup and 12-6 curveball to great effect. This is the kind of ace you want to hitch your wagon to in Omaha.
And if a rising star like Smith isn’t enough to convince you, the Dawgs also have the SEC Player of the Year in Charlie Condon.
The redshirt sophomore is as intimidating a hitter as any we’ve seen in many years in college football. He is hitting .443 with a Division I-leading 35 home runs.
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This is the highest number in the regular season since 2012, when the NCAA switched to BBCOR bats for safety reasons (reduced exit velocities).
My only problem here is the Georgia relievers. As Marc Weiszer, a Georgia baseball writer, recently said on SportsTalk with Bobby Hebert, “The (UGA) bullpen looked like a glaring weakness last weekend against Florida.”
If Johnson can fix his bullpen, especially closer Brian Zeldin, this team has what it takes to make a deep run in Omaha.
BET: Georgia to win the College World Series (25/1, DraftKings)
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