Imagine it’s election night in 2024. A few key states will decide the presidency — and test the health of our democracy. In this scenario, we can be certain of two facts: Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump will win a majority of the vote, and votes for independent and third-party candidates will eclipse the final margin.
Disaffected voters regularly turn to insurgents like John Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992, Ralph Nader in 2000, and Jill Stein and Gary Johnson in 2016. With polls in double digits for Robert Kennedy and Libertarians, Greens and Cornel West. on many state ballots, an entire phantom campaign emerges. Democrats are spending millions against these candidates, while Republicans wonder if they can repeat the 2016 scenario – in which Trump flipped the decisive states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a middle share votes less than 48%.
There is a proven solution to the “spoiler” problem, ready-made for American politics: ranked-choice voting. Australia averages more than five candidates in its RCV elections without any “spoiler” speeches. Maine and Alaska will already use RCV for the presidency this year. If all states had RCV, there would be no fear that a third-party candidate could tilt a state – and therefore the White House – against the popular will.
Why a lesser evil?
Instead of indicating a single choice, RCV voters can rank candidates first, second and so on. If no one wins by getting more than half of the top picks, the bottom finalists are eliminated and those candidates’ ballots count toward their next choice. The final “snapshot runoff” between the top two candidates guarantees a representative result without the costs and burdens of a December runoff.
Alaska adopted RCV for the 2020 presidential elections and Maine after legislative action in 2019. But why haven’t 48 states adopted RCV – especially the seven swing states that will decide next November’s election ? Why are the collective decisions of voters unwilling to settle for the “lesser of two evils” a bigger wild card than Trump’s criminal trials and Biden’s age?
It is certain that changes are happening; 50 US cities and hundreds of NGOs use RCV, with generally strong support in exit polls. RCV has won 27 consecutive municipal ballot measures, and four states and D.C. could vote on adopting RCV statewide in November. This was a clue on “Jeopardy!” » and in the national crosswords.
A few proven approaches will help scale RCV faster. Perfection is illusory, but we should never settle for less. Voters of all backgrounds easily cast ballots every day, and all jurisdictions should use well-designed ballots and tested voter education models to enable them to do so in RCV elections. RCV results must be as fast, transparent and verifiable as non-RCV results. States should purchase voting equipment that makes RCV as easy to use as flipping a switch.
Voters are ready
These changes are coming. Many cities release preliminary RCV counts on election night and adopt best practices for transparency, audits, and timely data release. Now that all modern voting equipment can conduct RCV elections (a real concern for cities seeking to adopt RCV in the 1990s and 2000s), policymakers are aligning standards to allow providers to offer RCV as the default option. More and more jurisdictions are investing in good ballot design, intuitive results displays, and voter education.
It is possible to effectively end the problem of presidential spoilers by 2028 by focusing on the swing states that decide the White House. RCV is already on the November ballot in Nevada, and active movements in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are pushing for change.
While Americans are fundamentally agitated about their voting choices, the problem of spoilers cannot be removed. It’s time to adopt national RCV to reflect voters’ choices and reward our leaders who seek to represent the majority of Americans.
Richie is a senior advisor and co-founder of FairVote, a nonpartisan election reform organization. ©2024 The fulcrum. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency.
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