China’s population declines for third straight year: NPR

TAIPEI, Taiwan — China’s population declined last year for the third consecutive year, the Chinese government said Friday, highlighting new demographic challenges for the world’s second-most populous country, which now faces both a aging population and an emerging shortage of people of working age.

China’s population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.39 million from the previous year.

The figures announced by the Beijing government follow global trends, but particularly in East Asia, where Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and other countries have seen their birth rates fall. Three years ago, China joined Japan and most of Eastern Europe as other countries with declining populations.

The reasons are in many cases similar: the rising cost of living pushes young people to delay or exclude marriage and the birth of a child while pursuing higher education and a career. Even though people are living longer, it’s not enough to keep up with the rate of new births.

Countries like China, which allow very little immigration, are particularly at risk.

China has long been one of the world’s most populous countries, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters to support a population that thrived on rice in the south and wheat in the north. After the end of World War II and the Communist Party came to power in 1949, large families reappeared and the population doubled in just three decades, even after tens of millions died in the Great Leap forward who sought to revolutionize agriculture and industry. the Cultural Revolution that followed a few years later.

After the end of the Cultural Revolution and the death of leader Mao Zedong, communist bureaucrats began to fear that the country’s population was exceeding its capacity to feed itself and began implementing a draconian “one-child policy.” “. Although it was never a law, women had to seek permission to have a child and violators faced forced late-term abortions and birth control procedures, massive fines and imprisonment. prospect of their child being deprived of an identification number, which makes them non-citizens. .

Rural China, where the preference for male offspring was particularly strong and two children were still ostensibly allowed, became the focus of government efforts, with women forced to show proof that they were menstruating and buildings emblazoned with slogans such as “have fewer children, have more”. children.”

The government has sought to eradicate selective abortion of girls, but with abortions legal and easily accessible, operators of illicit ultrasound machines have seen a boom in business.

This is the main factor behind China’s sex ratio imbalance, with up to millions more boys born for every 100 girls, raising the possibility of social instability among China’s army of singles. Friday’s report estimates the gender imbalance to be 104.34 men for every 100 women, although independent groups estimate the imbalance to be considerably higher.

More worrying for the government has been the drastic decline in the birth rate, with China’s total population falling for the first time in decades in 2023 and China narrowly overtaken by India as the most populous nation of the world the same year. Rapid population aging, declining workforce, lack of consumer markets and overseas migration are putting severe pressures on the system.

As military spending and flashy infrastructure projects continue to rise, China’s already fragile social security system is teetering, with increasing numbers of Chinese refusing to contribute to an underfunded pension system. finance.

Already, more than a fifth of the population is aged 60 or over, with the official figure being 310.3 million, or 22% of the total population. By 2035, this figure is expected to exceed 30%, sparking discussions about changing the official retirement age, which is one of the lowest in the world. With fewer students, some vacant schools and kindergartens are meanwhile being transformed into care facilities for the elderly.

Such developments lend credence to the aphorism that China, now the world’s second-largest economy but facing major headwinds, will “get old before it gets rich.”

Government incentives, including cash grants for having up to three children and financial assistance with housing costs, have had only temporary effects.

At the same time, China continues its transition to an urban society, with an additional 10 million people moving to cities, representing an urbanization rate of 67%, up almost a percentage point from the previous year. previous year.