China’s August retail sales and industrial data fall short of expectations

BEIJING — China’s retail sales, industrial production and urban investment all grew more slowly than expected in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Saturday.

Retail sales rose 2.1 percent in August from a year earlier, below expectations of 2.5 percent growth, according to a Reuters poll. The figure was also lower than the 2.7 percent increase in July.

Online sales of physical goods rose just under 1% in August from a year earlier, according to CNBC calculations based on official data.

Industrial production rose 4.5 percent in August from a year earlier, below the 4.8 percent forecast by Reuters. That also marked a slowdown from a 5.1 percent increase in July.

Despite the disappointing results, industrial production continued to grow faster than retail sales, “reflecting the structural imbalance embedded in the Chinese economy, with stronger supply and weaker demand,” said Darius Tang, associate director of corporates at Fitch Bohua.

The company expects the Chinese government to likely announce more gradual stimulus measures in the fourth quarter to support consumption and real estate, Tang said.

Fixed asset investment grew 3.4% in the January-August period, slower than the 3.5% growth forecast.

The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, up from 5.2% in July.

Among fixed asset investment, infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed their year-to-date growth in August, compared with July. Real estate investment fell 10.2% in the year to August, the same pace of decline as in July.

Liu Aihua, a spokeswoman for the National Bureau of Statistics, attributed the rise in unemployment to the impact of the graduation season. But she added that stabilizing employment would require more work.

This year, the statistics office publishes the unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school a few days after the general publication of unemployment data. The youth unemployment rate in July was 17.1%.

“We must be aware that the negative effects of changes in the external environment are increasing,” the bureau said in a statement in English. “Sustainable economic recovery still faces multiple difficulties and challenges.”

This weekend, Saturday is a working day in China, replacing Monday as a public holiday. The country celebrates the Mid-Autumn Festival, also known as the Mooncake Festival, from Sunday to Tuesday. The next and last major public holiday in China this year falls in early October.

Growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed after a disappointing recovery from Covid-19 lockdowns. Policymakers have yet to announce large-scale stimulus measures, while acknowledging that domestic demand is insufficient.

Other data released last week highlighted continued weakness in consumption.

Imports rose only 0.5 percent in August from a year earlier, customs data showed, below expectations. Exports rose 8.7 percent, beating expectations.

Beijing’s consumer price index for August also disappointed analysts’ expectations with a 0.6 percent increase from a year ago.