BEIJING (AP) — China’s relations are starts to improve with JapanIndia and other countries courted by former US President Joe Biden, just as Donald Trump brings his more unilateralist approach back to the White House.
THE change of direction The meeting Monday in Washington could be an opportunity for China, which has long decried Biden’s strategy of building partnerships with “like-minded countries” to counter its growing influence.
Biden revitalized a group known as the Quad – the United States, India, Japan and Australia. China’s relations with these three US partners are improving, as are its ties with Britain. The sustainability of Biden’s legacy is now in question. During his first term, Trump did not hesitate to challenge the United States’ traditional partners.
“It is possible that Trump will distance US allies, forcing them to pay more attention to China’s role, and in fact, this has provided an opportunity for Chinese diplomacy,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Beijing. Shanghai. “I think we should seize this opportunity.”
But U.S. National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said Trump “has a history of rallying the world to a more competitive position with China.” Trump accepted a free and open Indo-Pacific strategy that Japan introduced during his first term and he supported the exclusion of Chinese companies from telecommunications networks in the United States and many of its partners.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio — hours after being sworn in — met with foreign ministers of Australia, India and Japan in Washington, a move suggesting that engaging Quad countries and countering China’s influence will remain a priority for Trump.
Reconciliation with China has limits
Beijing’s rapprochement with the United Kingdom and Japan is still in its early stages, and major differences remain that limit it and could derail it.
India turned the page with China in a bitter border dispute last October, but protested when Beijing created two new counties in an area claimed by both nations.
However, new leaders Australiathe United Kingdom and Japan have expressed their desire to warm up their relations with China, the world’s largest producer and source of strategic minerals. The Beijing government has reciprocated in part because it wants foreign investment to help revive its economy, which could be slowed if Trump makes good on his threat to impose sanctions. higher rates.
Chinese President Xi Jinping told European Council President Antonio Costa in a telephone conversation last week that the two sides could bring more “stability and certainty” to the turbulent global situation. China and Britain resumed economic and financial negotiations after a six-year hiatus when Britain’s Treasury chief visited Beijing this month.
“From China’s perspective, improving relations with US allies and strengthening economic cooperation will offset the shock to China-US economic relations,” Wu said.
Trump’s statements agitate US allies
In Washington, there is a strong bipartisan consensus that the United States must overcome its economic and technological rivalry with China to maintain its global leadership.
During his confirmation hearing, Rubio called China “the most powerful and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever faced.” Biden maintained Trump’s tariffs on China and taxed more on electric cars and Chinese solar cells.
But unlike Biden, Trump has angered America’s allies and partners. his recent remarks on the possibility of annexing Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a NATO ally, and making Canada the 51st American state.
Hal Brands, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank American Enterprise Institute, said he believes some top strategists in Beijing are “salivating over the damage they think Trump will do to America’s alliances and the opportunities that this creates for Beijing to resuscitate some.” of its relations with… Japan and Europe, which have moved in a very strongly anti-China direction since COVID-19.”
Trump’s rhetoric and the attempts of advisor Elon Musk interfere in British and German politics, “will definitely have a ripple effect,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington.
“Countries want to at least keep their options open,” she said. “China is unlikely to be a better choice than the United States, even under Trump, but it is important to find a counterbalance. »
The Philippines is not mending fences
China’s relations are not improving with all US partners.
The Philippines complained recently over what he called a “monster” Chinese coast guard vessel in nearby waters, and the foreign ministers of Japan and the Philippines said last week they would do so. forward to Trump the urgent need for the United States to remain engaged in the region.
China and the Philippines reached a temporary agreement last July that helped avert further violent clashes around the Second Thomas Shoal, one of several outcrops claimed by both countries in the South China Sea.
The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies is prompting China and Japan to seek a stable relationship, said Taizo Miyagi, an expert on Japanese diplomacy at Chuo University in Tokyo.
A Japanese foreign minister visited Beijing for the first time in seven years, and Chinese military officials were in Tokyo last week to resume military exchanges after a five-year hiatus.
“In a way, it’s a Trump effect,” Miyagi said. “Many other countries are probably thinking the same thing, which could reinvigorate their diplomatic activities. »
Britain takes a new direction with China
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to rebuild ties with Beijing since his Labor Party’s election victory last summer. This is a marked change from his predecessor Rishi Sunak, who declared 2022 the end of the “golden age” of his country’s friendship with China.
In Britain’s case, Trump’s return may not be the driving force behind rapprochement.
Many European leaders may not like Trump’s agenda of putting America first, “but the idea that they will all kowtow to Beijing to increase trade is fanciful thinking on the part of from some of our Chinese friends,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London.
Most would prefer to remain partners with Washington. French President Emmanuel Macron outlines his vision for global diplomacy in a New Year’s speechsaid his country was “a strong ally” of Trump.
He and others hope that Trump will respond positively to their approaches. Much will depend on which path the returning US president takes and how the rest of the world reacts.
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Tang reported from Washington. Associated Press researcher Yu Bing in Beijing and writers Ashok Sharma in New Delhi, Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo, Sylvia Hui in London and Jim Gomez in Manila, Philippines, contributed to this report.
