- Trump’s relations with European leaders festive in Ukraine.
- China sees the opportunity to exploit the divisions, according to experts in conflict and security.
- China has long sought to divide the alliance between Europe and the United States.
The day after President Donald Trump’s oval office with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy last week, the old-fashioned alliance between Europe and the United States is subjected to new pressure.
The Trump administration justified to withdraw from its commitment to European security by arguing that it must focus on the threat posed by China. But China could be one of the great winners of any deterioration of the alliance between the main power blocks of the West.
Beijing could be ready to capitalize on the need for Europe of investment in the midst of new abrupt defense expenditure required by Trump, associated with the likely taxation of new prices by the United States.
“The continuous breakdown of the Transatlantic Alliance offers China the opportunity to present itself once again as a partner of many European countries”, Ali Wyne, A main research and plea advisor to the international Crisis Group in Washington, DC, told Bi.
He said that despite their concerns about the deepening of Sino-Russian links and the increase in Chinese exports, these countries “believe that they must manage from the United States that align with Russia and expand its protectionist campaign”.
China seeks to divide the West
Beijing has long sought to weaken American alliances in Europe, with the EU in 27 countries a large trading partner for the United States and China.
The support of China to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine hardened European attitudes towards it. But it can be about to change.
In fact, European leaders openly discuss how to adapt to a world on which American security guarantees can no longer be counted.
“The approach of Europe for derisory can change and create opportunities for China,” said international security professor at British University in Birmingham.
This could open the way to European leaders to negotiate agreements with Beijing unilaterally, both to strengthen their savings and also to act as a balance against American power.
At the Munich Security Conference in February, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi sought to exploit the divisions, calling for greater cooperation between China and Europe.
Ukraine itself an opening of China could seek to exploit.
Large parts of the country have been reduced to rubble by the three -year war, which left Ukraine faced with a possible reconstruction bill of $ 524 billion over the next decade, according to the World Bank.
And China could find itself as an unexpected beneficiary of any peace agreement, given its status as a global construction power and its pre-war trade relations with Ukraine.
“The amazing costs of post -war reconstruction in Ukraine – currently estimated at more than $ 500 billion in the next decade, a figure that should increase considerably since there is no short -term resolution for war with the aim – means that China will probably have the opportunity to guarantee high reconstruction contracts,” Wyne to Bi.
China feels the opportunity
Olivier Schmitt A professor at the Center for War Studies at the University of South Denmark, writing in December, warned that an American withdrawal of his commitments in Europe could turn against Trump.
“Far from strengthening Washington, proposed policies would not strengthen the role of China in the international system by forcing Europeans to line up with Beijing,” he said.
However, there are obstacles for China to overcome if it is to achieve its ambitions to break the American-Europe alliance and to seize new economic and political opportunities.
Tensions remain between China and Europe, in particular on the spill of goods, including electric vehicles and solar panels, on which the EU has imposed steep prices.
At the same time, European leaders of an emergency summit convened on Sunday in London expressed their desire to repair relations between the United States and Ukraine, as well as their conviction that Washington remains a key pillar of European security.
But China feels the opportunity. And if relations with Europe continue a spiral, Trump may have sabotaged his goal of refusing the growing influence of China.
businessinsider
