Chinese flag on coal background.
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The world added more coal-fired power capacity last year than any year since 2016, with China the main driver of growth and planned future capacity, according to a new study.
A Global Energy Monitor report released Thursday found that annual net coal capacity increased by 48.4 GW, an increase of 2% year-on-year. China alone accounted for about two-thirds of new coal-fired power capacity.
Other countries that have commissioned new coal-fired power plants include Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece and Zimbabwe.
Meanwhile, other countries, such as the US and UK, have slowed their rate of plant closures, with only around 22.1 GW decommissioned last year – the smallest amount since 2011 .
The GEM report’s authors recommended that countries commit to closing their coal plants more quickly and that countries like China adopt stricter controls on the development and use of new plants.
“Otherwise, we risk forgetting to achieve our goals in the Paris agreement and reap the benefits that a rapid transition to clean energy will bring,” said Flora Champenois, an analyst at Global Energy Monitor.
The Paris climate agreement, signed by most of the world’s governments in 2015, sets long-term goals to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by fossil fuels like coal. However, coal-fired electricity generation capacity continues to grow steadily.
China has separately set a goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2060. President Xi Jinping said in 2021 that China would “strictly control coal consumption” until 2025 and “gradually reduce coal consumption.” coal” subsequently.
Yet, according to GEM data, China began building 70.2 GW of new coal-fired power capacity last year, nearly 20 times more than the rest’s 3.7 GW. of the world. The country also only retired about 3.7 GW of its coal capacity in 2023.
Despite this, GEM said that with “immediate and determined action”, China can still meet its climate goals, including the National Energy Administration’s 2022 target to retire 30 GW of energy to coal by 2025.
While low retirement rates have contributed to coal’s success in 2023, they are expected to accelerate in the United States and Europe, according to the report. This could offset some of the new capacity in China.
“Coal’s fortunes this year are an anomaly, as all signs point to a trend reversal from this accelerated expansion,” Champenois said.
An addition of green energy, not a transition?
While China is a large consumer of coal, accounting for more than half of consumption since 2011, it has also helped increase global renewable energy capacity.
According to an IEA report, global renewable capacity additions increased by almost 50% to almost 510 GW in 2023, the fastest growth rate in two decades.
“While the increase in renewable capacity in Europe, the United States and Brazil has reached unprecedented heights, the acceleration in China has been extraordinary,” the report said.
China commissioned as much solar capacity as the entire world in 2022, while wind power additions also jumped 66% year-on-year, the IEA said.
However, experts say China’s rapid economic growth, combined with the unreliable and intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, has made coal a critical fallback option for a manufacturing-driven economy.
China also ranks among the top five countries in terms of global coal reserves, but not other less polluting options like oil and natural gas, according to Rob Thummel, managing director of the coal chain investment firm. Tortoise energy value.
“In China, coal is the largest national energy resource, so China continues to exploit it in order to maintain its energy security,” Thummel added.
The IEA estimates that all global coal production must cease by 2040 to limit temperature rises beyond the key threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
According to GEM, achieving this 2040 phase-out target would require closing an average of 126 GW of coal-fired power plant capacity per year over the next 17 years, which equates to about two coal-fired power plants per week.
The required reductions are even greater when taking into account the 578 GW of coal capacity under construction and pre-construction, he adds. According to GEM data, global coal capacity retirements have still not outpaced additions.
The EU’s climate change monitoring service said on Tuesday the world experienced its hottest March on record, marking the tenth consecutive month of new temperature records.
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