Even in the wintry conditions at Arrowhead Stadium’s GEHA Field on Saturday, it was no easy game for the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense in their 23-14 divisional round victory — because the Texans’ defense from Houston came to play, limiting the Chiefs to fewer numbers. total yards (212) in any game played by their starters this season.
One of the Texans’ biggest factors was gaining time of possession. The Chiefs were limited to 50 offensive plays – tied for the fewest points made by starters in any game this season. The low scoring battle seemed to come down to quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce playing in key moments.
Aside from Kelce’s 117 yards (and a big touchdown), Kansas City’s players totaled 60 receiving yards on 16 targets — and in Sunday’s AFC Championship against the second-seeded Buffalo Bills series, such a lack of production will be much more difficult to correct. overcome.
It started with the Texans aggressively defending against short, quick passes:
Ineffective fast passes
As the regular season came to a close, Kansas City’s offense found a rhythm with quick passing. The Week 16 game with the Texans was one of the strongest examples: On passes thrown less than 2.5 seconds after the snap, Mahomes completed 17 of 19 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown.
But in Saturday’s game, Mahomes had 31 yards on seven of those throws, averaging 2.8 yards per attempt on those throws.
The Texans were clearly integrated into some of the Chiefs’ fundamental passing schemes.
On this first down, the play-caller is one of Kansas City’s typical starters: the Y-stick. Kelce offers an optional route based on coverage; Mahomes has a simple read that usually gains about five yards. Defenses rarely succeed against this play – but here, the Texans nickel defender anticipates the fast route and breaks it.
On this third down, the Chiefs run Kelce and tight end Noah Gray on a high-low concept over the middle, trying to put emphasis on the middle linebacker in coverage.
At the snap, Houston linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair goes deep to pick up Kelce on a deeper pattern, prompting Mahomes to throw short to Gray. This is probably exactly what Al-Shaair wanted; he reacted immediately to the throw, stopping Gray before the first marker.
The Chiefs tried to counter the Texans’ downhill aggression with a few timing screens that put the offensive line in space, but none were successful. The first two had long downs – predictable timing for these games – demonstrating that sometimes the timing of the call can be just as important as its design.
Mahomes’ short accuracy wasn’t up to his usual standards either. Against a ball-rushing defense, this can make a big difference on quick throws. Mahomes made a handful of throws behind his target, lowering the ceiling on each play.
When a defense attacks the fast play, the margin for error on throwing accuracy is smaller.
15 left the ball behind his target a little too much pic.twitter.com/45A6a3q4Um
– Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) January 21, 2025
On third down before the fourth quarter field goal, Worthy created separation on a route to the first down marker. Mahomes’ blitz throw was inside, forcing Worthy to turn and secure the pass before the sticks. A more precise throw could have extended the possession at the end of the match.
Looking further
Houston’s focus on underneath passing left them vulnerable further down the field – and when he needed to, Mahomes was able to take advantage: he completed all five of his passes from 10-19 yards downfield, totaling 122 yards and a score. It was the second-most intermediate passing yards Mahomes had gained in a single game this season.
Four of those connections were with Kelce, who exploited the Texans’ focus on short route defense.
On both of these plays, the second level of the defense gravitates toward the flat, leaving large windows in which Kelce can work.
Careful design to get Worthy 1v1 with security cover in man
Worthy threatens the back-and-forth, doesn’t create separation on the sideline – but attacks the ball on the back shoulder with late hands pic.twitter.com/ZHbFQgSFJG
– Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) January 19, 2025
The fifth field goal completion went to Worthy, who showed his growth as a sideline receiver with solid positioning and good hands to secure the pass on the backside. The play call lays out the Texans’ game plan, lining up Worthy in the backfield to force a Houston defender to come and stay with him after an extended free release.
Missed deep shots
With particular attention paid to the Chiefs’ short game, the Texans were inevitably going to create deep passing opportunities. Mahomes only found two opportunities to let him destroy the field. Although neither was finished, both were found to be open ended.
Receiver Hollywood Brown was the target on both plays. He was inches away from an opening touchdown and 45-yard completion.
Hollywood Brown Didn’t Score, But He Was Close on 2 Massive Plays
Both courses were really well paced, one throw was too long, one throw was perfect – but couldn’t be completed pic.twitter.com/CXP5pcIMQ4
– Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) January 19, 2025
On the first target, the Chiefs use wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to throw vertically and occupy the playside safety. This leaves the deep part of the sideline open for Brown, who sells a route before cutting down the sideline in front of the flat defender. The pass is simply too far.
On the second play, the safety on Brown’s side plays, anticipating a breaking route. Brown speeds up his initial release to keep the safety in a shallow position before speeding past him on the outside. Mahomes makes a perfect pass over Brown’s outside shoulder. The wide player corrects the ball, but is unable to secure it through contact with the ground.
The essentials
Houston’s off-ball defenders aggressively covered Kansas City’s quick throws. This was coupled with a hard-hitting pass rush to disrupt the Chiefs passing game. Even if Mahomes was able to attack the defensive system’s flaws at the right time, similar production probably won’t be enough against the Bills in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs need to find more space for quick passes through solid play design. If Buffalo takes them away, Mahomes needs to make them pay with deep completions. For the quarterback and his speedy receivers, it’s now or never.