Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Predictions from Arrowhead Pride

Before the Kansas City Chiefs‘Divisional round match with the Houston TexansArrowhead Pride contributors were united: Kansas City would qualify for the AFC Championship. The panel overall prediction for a 27-17 win had eight points of error compared to the 23-14 final: he missed the point difference by one point, the score of the Chiefs by four points and that of the Texans by three. This is the second most accurate prediction of the season. A a plurality of our readers agreed that Kansas City would get an easy victory — even though more than one in ten thought the Chiefs would win in a blowout.

On Sunday, the Chiefs face the Buffalo Bills on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship. According to FanDuel Sports Betting, Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff – and our readers – think of this match.

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Nate Christensen (@natech32)

Like most of these Chiefs-Bills matchups, this is a toss-up for me. The quarterbacks, coaching staff and teams are all elite. The teams know each other a lot; Everyone knows roughly what to expect from the other. Most matchups between them come down to one or two games. On Sunday, I think the Chiefs will get those games, because they’re at home – and get some revenge after a loss. Kansas City will make just enough plays on both sides of the ball to escape with a win against what I believe to be the second-best team in the league – in the toughest game it will have this season.

30 counts, 27 bills

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After handing the Kansas City starters their only loss of the season, I guess the Bills are pretty confident they can come to Arrowhead and punch their ticket to New Orleans. But I think this loss will be on the Chiefs’ minds when they take the field on Sunday – and I don’t think it will be good news for Buffalo.

30 counts, 20 bills

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The Chiefs face a tough challenge against the Bills, the only team to beat their starters this season. But key players like Charles Omenihu, Harrison Butker, Jaylen Watson and Isiah Pacheco are back for this one, providing a critical boost on both sides of the ball. This game will hinge on a few crucial plays – but in high-pressure moments, it’s hard to bet against Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. With home-field advantage in Arrowhead – and a defense bolstered by the return of Watson – the Chiefs will find a way to get ahead of Buffalo and advance to the Super Bowl, keeping their three peats dream alive.

Counts 27, Bills 21

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The Chiefs-Bills matchup looks to be the right one for the AFC title game: the two best teams in the conference, led by the two best quarterbacks in the NFL. So this battle will likely depend on which defense poses the most problems for the opposing caller. Buffalo had an aggressive defensive game plan in its regular season win over Kansas City, playing more man coverage and tackling Mahomes in the pocket. But this time, the Chiefs’ new offensive speed could reverse the trend. In Week 11, Josh Allen picked apart the Chiefs defense with his arms and legs – but on Sunday he’ll see a stronger passing and coverage unit in Kansas City. I think defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit will make some big plays in key moments to make the difference in an epic game.

30 counts, 23 bills

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The more I watch last week’s Bills tape, the more I think the Baltimore Ravens were actually right: They managed to make Buffalo’s offense completely predictable. If Josh Allen lines up in the shotgun, it’s either a read-option run or a short pass up the middle. If he lines up under the center, he either gives it away or keeps it himself. They will line up in a giant formation and pass the ball through midfield. If Allen passes the ball, it will be up the middle. If he’s under pressure, he’ll throw it deep — although he’s better at that against the blitz than if the opponent can get home with four pass rushes. The Ravens lost because they couldn’t get a stop when they needed to – and also shot themselves in the foot. I don’t see the Chiefs doing that in this game. Kansas City is healthier than it was in Week 11 – and has something to play for. It will be tough, but the Chiefs take this one.

27 counts, 24 bills

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In this game a year ago, I picked the Ravens to beat the Chiefs. While I think Buffalo is certainly an opponent capable of winning the Lamar Hunt Trophy, I feel better about Kansas City’s chances this time around. The Chiefs will benefit from some key returns from the regular season game. Against the Houston Texans on Saturday, Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and Charles Omenihu finally showed what the Kansas City forward can do. Although Buffalo has a much better offensive line than Houston, the Chiefs will be able to show off some looks that the Bills didn’t see when these teams last met. On offense, the return of Hollywood Brown (and hopefully another week to shake off the rust) should allow for a short passing game to prevent an opportunistic (but flawed) Buffalo defense from making big plays.

27 counts, 24 bills

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How do you choose the winner of a conference championship game against the best team in the league? Even after six previous AFC title clashes, it’s the same: I’m cautiously optimistic – nervously trying to avoid jinxing the team or getting too confident – ​​but I’m not I’m not willing to face Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. There’s no doubt about it: the Bills are a formidable opponent. Josh Allen is the second best quarterback in the NFL. He made huge plays in huge moments. As a runner, it is almost impossible to stop over short distances or in open terrain. But we’re also talking about back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs are as healthy as they’ve been all season — and they’ve demonstrated time and time again that they know how to win big games. It will likely depend on which team doesn’t turn over the ball – and even then, it could depend on which team has the ball last. I think Kansas City’s receivers will step up as Buffalo attempts to suppress Travis Kelce. I think the team’s newly confident pass rush will go after Allen, forcing at least one interception. I think we’ll see yet another game where Mahomes leads his team to victory. The Chiefs are on the brink of history. Don’t bet against them.

35 counts, 28 bills

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I have this game like a real one tossup – and I think this perspective fits with the general consensus. If our predictions section could hypothetically extend to the first half of the match, I would feel confident picking against the team that turns over the ball first. Speaking of which…I think Patrick Mahomes learned something in Week 11, when his first pick sent the matchup between these teams in the wrong direction. As I noted in our last First AP newsletter, Mahomes is the closest thing to Michael Jordan we’ve ever seen in the NFL. His ability to perform under pressure is like no other. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was the Bills’ turn to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Still, as a general rule, you don’t bet against Jordan.

31 counts, 30 bills

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With their predictions grouped together, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 30-25.

What do you think?

In the divisional round, Ron Kopp and Pete Sweeney had the most accurate predictions. Ron was calling for a 27-17 victory, while Pete was predicting a 27-14 victory. These two choices had eight points of error. Nate Christensen and Rocky Magaña made predictions that were each off by a total of 10 points.

To calculate the points error of a prediction, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in terms of point spread, home team score and away team score are added together . For example, one prediction calls for a 17-10 victory for the Chiefs. They ended up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, Kansas City’s score was off by one point, and the opponent’s score was correctly predicted . But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there are 28 points of error in the prediction: the point difference is shifted by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores are missed by 7 .