Ceasefire in Gaza: what can we expect?

Israel and Hamas are reportedly close to reaching an agreement that could end the war in Gaza and lead to the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

CBS, the BBC’s American partner, was informed by Arab, American and Israeli officials that an agreement in principle had been reached and that, if all goes well, it would be finalized by Israel and Hamas this week.

It would be the most dramatic breakthrough in 15 months of war, which began when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

It is hoped that a ceasefire agreement will mean an agreement to end the war raging in Gaza.

An exchange of hostages and prisoners is also expected.

Hamas captured 251 hostages during its attack on Israel in October 2023. It still holds 94, although Israel estimates that only 60 are still alive.

Israel is expected to release around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some imprisoned for years, in exchange for the hostages.

This ceasefire is expected to take place in three stages, once an agreement is announced.

Details are still being worked out. Until an agreement is finalized, it is subject to change.

First step

A Palestinian official told the BBC that initially 34 hostages – likely civilians – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Three hostages would be released immediately, with the remainder of the exchange taking place over six weeks.

During this stage, Israeli troops would also begin to withdraw from populated areas of Gaza.

The Palestinian official said detailed negotiations for the second and third stages would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

Second step

In a second step, the remaining hostages – soldiers and reservists – would be released, in exchange for a certain number of Palestinian prisoners.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel reportedly agreed to release, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released in the occupied West Bank.

During this stage, Israel would also allow displaced people currently in southern Gaza to return to the north.

Almost all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been forced to leave their homes because of the fighting.

Third step

The third and final step would involve rebuilding Gaza – which could take years.

The Israeli official said Israeli forces would remain in a buffer zone, or security zone, inside Gaza during any ceasefire.

Getting to this point required months of painstaking indirect negotiations, not least because Israel and Hamas completely distrust each other.

Hamas wanted to completely end the war before releasing the hostages, which was unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire will in effect suspend the war while its terms are respected.

However, it is unclear whether this will mean the definitive end of the war.

One of Israel’s main war objectives has been to destroy Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities. Although Israel has seriously damaged it, Hamas still has a certain capacity for action and regrouping.

It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead, or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those missing.

For its part, Hamas demanded the release of certain prisoners that Israel claims not to release. This appears to include those who participated in the October 7 attacks.

It is also unclear whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date, or whether its presence there will be unlimited.

Any ceasefire risks being fragile.

Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas, which had ended previous wars, were undermined by skirmishes and ultimately broken down.

The timing and complexity of this ceasefire mean that even a small incident could turn into a major threat.

Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaching the border fence and targeting communities, police stations and military bases.

Around 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were returned to Gaza. Hamas has also fired thousands of rockets into Israel.

Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first by air, then by land. Since then, Israel has attacked targets across Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

The Israeli offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe food shortages, with aid struggling to reach those who need it most. More than 46,600 people – mostly civilians – have been killed by Israeli attacks, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.