Canada’s weaker retail sales numbers in February and March highlight the pain caused by rising interest rates slowly filtering through the economy. Statistics Canada reported sales down 0.1% in February and stable in March.
USDCAD 10 minutes
The market is implying a roughly 55% chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut on June 5, up from just under 50% before the data was released. The BOC has plenty of time to digest other economic news ahead of this decision, including another retail sales report.
At the moment, USD/CAD is fighting to surpass yesterday’s high of 1.3714. So far it has been adapted but not broken. A move higher could target 1.3750, but this will depend on the overall risk sentiment. Currently, US stock futures are up slightly, while Treasury yields are rising 4-5 basis points across the curve.
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