But now, in a context of housing accessibility crisis and pressure on social services, the Trudeau government is rolling out the welcome mat for certain immigrants.
It has capped the number of permanent residents it will take in, announced a temporary limit on international student visas and pledged to reduce the proportion of the population made up of temporary immigrants such as foreign workers.
A “massive increase” in the number of temporary immigrants has exceeded “what Canada has been able to absorb,” Trudeau told reporters this month. “This is something we need to get back under control.”
Immigration has long enjoyed high support here, a consensus that cuts across much of the political spectrum. Canada has been largely shielded from the anti-immigration backlash that has been a driving force in U.S. and European politics. But some signs are changing.
In September, an Environics Institute poll found that 44 percent of people here agreed “that there is too much immigration to Canada,” an increase of 17 points from 2022, the biggest year-to-year change since the question was first asked in 1977. concern that immigration will drive up housing costs.
“The shift has occurred in public confidence in how immigration is handled,” said Keith Neuman, a senior associate at the institute. “This is not a change in the way people perceive immigrants. … It’s not about the type of people who come or their impact on the culture.
Analysts say failure to restore this trust could jeopardize the consensus on immigration.
“I think we need to address these issues,” said Mike Moffatt, an associate professor at the Ivey Business School at Western University in London, Ont., “because if we don’t, we absolutely undermine that consensus. danger – and this consensus has been compromised. served Canada very well.
“All good things have their limits”
The plan was bold: By 2025, Canadian officials announced, the country would welcome nearly 1.5 million new permanent residents. For the most part, they would be economic immigrants, selected according to a points system that values skilled work, education and youth.
But behind the scenes of that 2022 announcement, the Canadian Press reported, federal officials had warned that rapid population growth could strain the health care system and housing affordability. The housing stock, they said, had not kept pace with the population.
Real estate prices here are the highest in the G-7, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For many millennials, once a key demographic for Trudeau, homeownership seems increasingly out of reach.
Much of Canada’s population growth is not linked to the number of permanent residents, but rather to the growing number of temporary immigrants, such as international students, which adds to pressures.
There were more than a million international students here in 2023, an increase of 245 percent from the previous decade and 60 percent since 2019. Canada, a country of 40 million people, had last year had about the same number of international students as the United States, a country more than eight times its size.
Governments of all stripes encouraged their arrival, said Lisa Brunner, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of British Columbia, which “had a ripple effect because higher education and immigration were closely linked “.
Everyone gets something out of this arrangement. International students pay tuition fees several times higher than domestic students, a key revenue source for colleges and universities whose funding has been cut by provincial governments.
International students, meanwhile, can apply for a post-graduation work permit and possibly permanent resident status, a process called two-step immigration.
Analysts say that while population growth has played a role, the roots of Canada’s housing affordability crisis are complex and fall under the purview of all levels of government, encompassing issues such as zoning restrictions and the shortage of skilled construction workers.
In recent months, critics have called on the government to align immigration figures with the country’s infrastructure. Immigration has its advantages, economists at the National Bank of Canada wrote in January, “but all good things have their limits.”
Immigration Minister Marc Miller said last month that Canada would set targets for the number of temporary immigrants for the first time. He had already announced a temporary cap on undergraduate study permits and increased the amount of money international students must have to study here.
The Ministry also prohibited students in programs run by public-private collegiate partnerships from applying for postgraduate work permits. Some, Miller said, run “the diploma equivalent of puppy mills,” offering mediocre degree programs in exchange for the prospect of permanent status.
In the federal budget plan presented this month, the government said the number of temporary residents is expected to decrease by around 600,000, “which will lead to a significant drop in demand in the real estate market”.
The proposal also includes measures to boost housing construction, some of which will require provincial support.
Restrict Temporary immigration “will help alleviate some of the upward pressure on rents,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “Measures to speed up housing construction will help in the long term, but it will take some time for them to come into effect.”
Moffatt, who advised the Trudeau government on housing, said he was caught “off guard.”
“I think they should have implemented these changes about five years ago,” he said.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada said in a statement that it “will continue to align immigration with housing capacity and labor market needs.”
“At the same time, we must ensure strong pathways to permanent residency for those who wish to settle in Canada long-term, and avoid the pitfalls of an economy built solely on temporary workers,” said Jessica Kingsbury, door -spokesperson of the ministry. “Immigration is essential to Canada’s long-term success. »
“I no longer see my future here”
Conestoga College students sipped Tim Hortons and hung out in common areas on a campus in Kitchener, a city of 257,000 people per hour west of Toronto. The corridors were filled with chatter in Hindi, Punjabi and Mandarin.
In 2017, international students made up 20% of the public college’s 11,860 full-time students. “Increased tuition revenue from international students has had a positive impact on the bottom line,” the school said in an annual report.
Full-time enrollment has since quadrupled to 45,000 students, most come from abroad. By 2023, Conestoga had approved more than 30,000 international study permits, more than any other college or university in Canada.
With new changes to international study permits, that number will be cut by more than half.
Simren Preetkaur started a two-year commerce diploma program here in September. The Indian student said she was following Ottawa’s recent initiatives.
“To some extent we agree with them,” said Preetkaur, 20, “because the citizens, those who lived here before, are not getting the benefits.”
Brunner, who works with international students, said the situation is difficult for many.
“There’s definitely a lot of uncertainty about your future,” she said. “This two-step migration really puts people in a competitive position in the job market with no guarantee of permanent residency at the end, and I think that’s been very stressful for individual students. »
Hardik Lathiya arrived in Canada from the Indian state of Gujarat last January to study web development. It was “totally white” with snow when he arrived, he said, and the wind was fierce.
Lathiya, 23, discovered Conestoga online. It received positive reviews, he said, and he was eager to gain some independence abroad.
His experience was mixed. He has learned a lot, but he misses his friends and family. He works part-time in a restaurant but struggles to manage his expenses. Finding affordable housing has also been a headache.
At first, Lathiya lived with five roommates who shared three rooms. Today, he lives with three roommates but still shares a room. His monthly rent is around $430.
He plans to stay in Canada for a few years to work before returning to India.
“I no longer see my future here,” Lathiya said. “Right now, (life) is full of struggles.”
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