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Can Robert F. Kennedy Jr. become president?

Many of our readers who participated in a recent live chat about third-party candidates wanted to know what impact votes for independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Cornel West would have on the 2024 presidential election. a chance to win? Here’s what I know.

The United States is a representative democracy, and nothing in the U.S. Constitution requires presidential candidates to belong to a political party. The people decide.

For much of U.S. history, there have been more than two major political parties, and that may be happening again. The GOP, as we see it today in the House of Representatives, hardly functions as a cohesive political party. That said, there are significant barriers to entry for new parties or independent candidates.

In our system, electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who receives the most votes in each state except Maine and Nebraska. This means there are no prizes for second place. So unless you can actually win a majority in the state, your impact on a race will likely be limited to taking votes away from other candidates. Now this could change at any time. Kennedy and West try. But opinion polls so far don’t show they have a clear chance of winning a state.

To win the presidency, the candidate must obtain a majority of electoral votes – 270 or more. If no candidate wins 270 votes, either because of a tie or because three or more candidates split the vote, the 2025 House of Representatives will choose the speaker, with each state delegation getting only one vote. Republicans are expected to maintain their advantage in the number of state delegations they control.

Thus, until there is popular rejection of the two major parties, or an official division within one of them, the two-party system dominates. To learn more about third parties, read the transcript of my conversation here.

washingtonpost

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