Can Caleb Williams Become Bears’ First 4,000-Yard Passer?

LAKE FOREST, Ill. — Moments after celebrating being drafted with the No. 1 overall pick by the Chicago Bears on April 25, quarterback Caleb Williams was backstage watching a montage of the greatest moments in franchise history.

Narrated by Hall of Famer Mike Singletary, the former Bears linebacker listed the greats who played for Chicago and how Williams was supposed to be next.

But for all the accolades and accomplishments Singletary listed, something was missing. The Bears are the only NFL franchise to never have a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in a season.

“You look at it and you wonder why,” Williams said later that night. “I asked questions, obviously. I’m not ashamed to ask questions.”

“They told my father and me the truth about the why, what, where and how of this change. That’s what excites us.”

Williams’ quest to erase that stain begins Sunday against the Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET, Fox).

The team’s single-season passing record is held by Erik Kramer, who threw for 3,838 yards and 29 TDs in the 1995 season. Jay Cutler, the Bears’ closest thing to a franchise quarterback, is the team’s all-time leading passer with 23,443 yards, but he never threw for more than 3,812 yards in a season.

Chicago’s record for passing touchdowns by rookies is 11 by Charlie O’Rourke in 1942 and 2,193 passing yards by Mitch Trubisky in 2017.

ESPN BET estimates Williams’ season totals at 22.5 passing touchdowns and 3,451 passing yards, as the former USC Heisman Trophy winner is expected to break several team records.

But will he reach 4,000 yards or 30 TDs as a rookie? There have been five rookie quarterbacks to throw for 4,000 yards in NFL history:

• Andrew Luck, 4,374 in 2012

• Justin Herbert, 4,336 in 2020

• CJ Stroud, 4,108 in 2023

• Cam Newton, 4,051 in 2,011

• Jameis Winston, 4,042 in 2015

Herbert threw 31 TD passes in 2020, becoming the only rookie to reach the top 30.

“I think if Caleb Williams stays healthy, I think he’ll throw for 4,000-plus yards and bring something to this team,” Hall of Fame quarterback and ESPN “Monday Night Football” analyst Troy Aikman said during the Hall of Fame game on Aug. 1. “… I just think he’s a special, special talent, and I’m really optimistic about the kind of career he’s going to have.”

The main reason to be skeptical is the franchise’s history of never producing a prolific quarterback, but there are reasons to be optimistic. Here are three reasons why Williams could end the Bears’ long history of quarterback futility and reach 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns.

Three receivers #1

Two receivers accounted for the majority of Kramer’s passing production during the 1995 season: Jeff Graham (1,301 yards) and Curtis Conway (1,037).

Williams has more weapons.

After DJ Moore set career highs in receptions (96), receiving yards (1,364) and touchdowns (8) last season, the Bears bolstered their receiving corps by trading for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze with the No. 9 overall pick. Allen recorded the second-most receiving yards (1,243) of his 11-year career with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023, and Odunze led all FBS programs in receptions (1,640) during Washington’s run to the national title game.

Williams will be the first starting quarterback in history to start a season opener with two receivers who had at least 90 receptions in the previous NFL season (Allen had 108). He also has a solid tight end in Cole Kmet, who had a career-high 73 receptions in 2023, as well as D’Andre Swift, who ranked among the top five running backs in targets (78), receptions (62) and yards (452) during a career year as a wide receiver with the Detroit Lions in 2021.

“I don’t know if we need a No. 1 receiver,” Williams told ESPN. “I think we’ve gotten a couple of No. 1s, and that’s what makes it fun for us on the offensive side of the ball because it makes it a lot harder for other teams’ defenses over the next 18 weeks. …

“They can’t double DJ because it’s Keenan and Rome. They can’t double Rome because it’s Keenan and DJ. I’m going to spread the ball around, Keenan’s going to have fun, DJ’s going to have fun, Cole (Kmet), Gerald (Everett), Rome, the running backs — Swift and all the rest of them.”

“Put first” mentality

Two plays during the Bears’ 27-3 preseason win over the Bengals on Aug. 17 highlight Williams’ mindset.

Late in the second quarter, Williams extended a play with his legs before throwing a pass to Odunze in the back right corner of the end zone that would have been a touchdown had the receiver kept his feet in bounds. Two plays later, Williams kept his eyes down during a scrum while looking for an open receiver. The play set up the quarterback’s only 7-yard touchdown run of the preseason.

https://twitter.com/ChicagoBears/status/1824873334347022815?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

In similar situations over the past three seasons, Justin Fields has often elected to run the ball before considering downfield options.

Knowing when to abandon his passer-first mentality and run when necessary is something Williams has worked on throughout training camp.

“It’s a little tough because I like to pass the ball, even in scramble mode,” Williams said. “I tend to lean a lot more toward throwing the ball, throwing it to finish, right in front of me, however it works, something crazy, or just throwing it toward the end zone.

“They taught me how to attack the line of scrimmage and things like that on my scrambles, on rollouts, guards. So I’ve tried to get a little better at balancing that and taking what they give me, whether it’s a run to gain ground or a quick pass in front of me. It’s always a constant battle to do things like that. We just continue to get better in those situations.”

Williams is a capable runner, having rushed for 26 touchdowns in college (2021 at Oklahoma and the next two seasons at USC).

Game call

Williams finished his college career with 120 passing and rushing touchdowns. His 45 completions of 40-plus yards over three college seasons were the most in the FBS.

Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has been tasked with building a system that plays to Williams’ strengths. Moving his quarterback through play-action and designed deployments were highlights of Williams’ limited action in the preseason, when he completed 10 of 20 passes for 170 yards with a 79.2 passer rating.

To reach 4,000 passing yards, Williams will have to put a greater emphasis on passing than the Bears have shown thus far. Chicago ranked 30th in designed pass percentage under former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy (2022-23). ​​​​Over that same span, Waldron’s offenses in Seattle ranked seventh. Additionally, Seattle passed the ball on first down at the sixth-highest rate (56%) in 2023, compared to the Bears, who ranked 25th in first-down passing (49%).

Waldron has stressed to his QB throughout training camp about finding a balance between playing within the structure and not following the script. He reiterated that last week when coach Matt Eberflus said he wanted Williams to “play point guard” early on downs by distributing the ball to skill players first, before, as general manager Ryan Poles put it, “letting those crazy plays happen at the right time.”

Whether it was on the move or throwing off the platform, Williams displayed an ability that few other Bears quarterbacks were capable of. Harnessing that ability has been a goal for Waldron.

“He can play in rhythm, find his throws,” Waldron said. “And then what’s pretty cool to watch is when the game breaks down, it almost feels like it’s in slow motion for him, and he can find a different running lane, be smart with the ball, break the lockdown and create explosions down the field.”