California hits ‘very high’ COVID levels

Coronavirus levels have increased significantly in wastewater across the country, indicating that the summer surge continues to grow.

Virus concentrations in wastewater reached “high” levels for the first time this summer, according to estimates released Friday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). COVID-19 is advancing or likely advancing in 44 states and the nation’s capital, the agency said.

And for the first time since winter, California recorded “very high” levels of coronavirus in its wastewater, according to CDC data for the week ending July 6. California was one of seven states in that category; the others are Arkansas, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, Oregon and Texas. Nineteen other states, spanning every region of the country, have high levels of coronavirus in wastewater.

Coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater are now estimated to be significantly higher than last summer. And in Northern California, two of the largest sewer basins, covering San Jose and Palo Alto in Santa Clara County (the region’s most populous county), have reported high levels of the virus in wastewater.

Additionally, California’s COVID test positivity rate has nearly reached last summer’s peak. For the week ending July 8, 13% of reported tests were positive; the rate for the comparable week a month earlier was 4.8%. The latest positivity rate nearly surpasses last summer’s peak of 13.1% in late August and early September.

In Los Angeles County, the country’s most populous county, coronavirus levels in wastewater have increased dramatically.

Additionally, “we are seeing an increase in cases, emergency room visits and hospitalizations for COVID-19,” the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in a statement to the Times. “It is too early to tell whether the surge will be greater this summer than last summer.”

For the 10-day period that ended June 29, the most recent information available, coronavirus levels in Los Angeles County wastewater were at 27% of last winter’s peak, according to the health department. That’s a significant increase from the previous comparable period, which ended June 22, which was at 17% of last winter’s peak.

The number of COVID cases in the county has also been rising. For the week ending July 7, there was an average of 307 new cases per day, up from 121 per day a month earlier. Last summer’s peak was a daily average of 571 cases for the week ending Aug. 26.

Officially reported cases are likely an undercount, given that they only reflect the results of tests conducted in medical facilities, not at-home tests. Additionally, fewer people are getting tested for COVID-19 when they are sick. But measuring the number of cases is still useful for assessing overall trends.

The percentage of emergency room visits related to coronavirus in Los Angeles County is also up. For the week ending July 7, 2.5% of emergency room visits were related to coronavirus; a month ago, that figure was 1.5%. Last summer’s peak was for the week ending Aug. 27, when 5.1% of emergency room visits were related to coronavirus.

The mid-year surge in COVID-19 cases began in May, earlier than usual. Previously, the mid-year surge in cases and hospitalizations in Los Angeles County began in early July (in 2021 and 2023), but in early May in 2022.

Kaiser Permanente Southern California continues to see an increase in cases, primarily among outpatients, officials said.

“The numbers continue to slowly, slowly increase,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional infectious disease manager for Kaiser Southern California. “We’ll have to see where things go from here because we’re now after the Fourth of July, and that’s typically when we start to see a bigger increase if we want it to happen.”

New York City health officials are closely monitoring the rise in infections. The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on Tuesday urged residents to consider wearing masks, especially in crowded indoor settings and especially for those at high risk, given the rise in cases. “Wear your mask, NYC!” the agency said in a social media post, along with an illustration of public transit riders wearing masks.

The surge in coronavirus infections comes as a new class of subvariants called FLiRT, estimated to be 20% more transmissible than the dominant winter subvariant, is on the rise. For the two-week period ending July 6, an estimated 70.5% of COVID samples nationwide were FLiRT subvariants — officially known as KP.3, KP.2 and KP.1.1. That’s up from 54.9% the previous month.

The CDC has not identified any states where the summer COVID surge is declining or likely declining. Three states have a stable or uncertain trend in COVID cases: Hawaii, New Mexico and Oregon, according to the CDC. No estimates were available for Missouri, Wisconsin or Wyoming.