California farmers supported Trump. Now his prices could hurt them

One day after President Trump imposed radical rates on three of the country’s largest business partners, many Californian farmers, who produce most of the country’s food, feared that the decision would harm their operations.

The rich fertile field of the State is a large world supplier of products and its farmers could be hardly affected while Canada, Mexico and China retaliate by slapping samples from American exports. Farmers also count strongly on Canada fertilizers, which could cost more as the prices set up.

“I am very worried that this can affect the entire tomato industry,” said Bruce Rominger, who cultivates tomatoes with other products in a Yolo County farm in the Sacramento valley.

Mexico and Canada are two of the largest customers in Roma tomatoes who broke out by millions of people high down to the central valley at the end of each summer and are then canned. Farmers fear that transformers exporting canned tomatoes should face high reprisals that will lower the demands in these countries or express producers to reduce their prices.

The Trump administration imposed a 25% rate on Canada and Mexico products, and an additional 10% price on China.

Canada quickly announced a series of prices on American imports in retaliation. China also responded by announcing 15% prices On many American agricultural products, including cotton, which grows on thousands of acres in the southern valley of San Joaquin. Mexico said it would detail its prices on Sunday.

“Yes, he can damage the Canadian economy,” Canadian Prime Minister said Justin Trudeau in a speech on Tuesday, “But he will discover it quickly, as American families will discover it quickly, it will hurt people on both sides of the border.”

The prices come while Californian farmers are already shaken by concerns that a massive epulic effort – that Trump has promised during his campaign – could decimate the ranks of low -wage workers who plant and harvest crops. Because half of California’s agricultural workers are undocumented, according to studies. The Trump administration also perplexed farmers this year when the body of army engineers Suddenly released irrigation The water from two dams just before a rainy winter weekend – not a time when farmers needed or wanted water. Concerns have been more stingy in the central valley with layoffs and cuts provided for at the Bureau of Reclamation, which operates aquatic infrastructure at the end of the agricultural heart.

However, many farmers, who supported Trump by big margins in the 2024 elections, were reluctant to speak openly about their concerns, for fear of being considered as criticism or because they hope that the administration will protect farmers as in the past.

“It’s not an easy time for (farmers),” said Daniel Payares-Montoya, research partner at the Public Policy Institute of California. “They face more pressure than before.”

From an economic point of view, he said, trade is supposed to increase the pie for everyone, but politics has created a lot of uncertainty.

The long flat fields of the central valley, nestled between the California coastal channel and the Sierra Nevada, can feel far from global affairs, but almond orchards in zucchini fields, farmers from top to bottom have observed closely – and with a trepidation.

Shannon Douglass, president of California’s Farm Bureau, noted in a statement that state agriculture was injured by previous commercial wars. During the last Trump administration, reprisal rates from China hit particularly hard almond producers, reducing the price per book from $ 2.50 to $ 1.40, according to a study.

According to a report by California Department of Food and Agriculture, California farmers exported more than $ 22 billion in food in 2021, with almonds at the top of the list, followed by dairy, wine and pistachios.

“California farmers are among the most productive in the world, but the general taxation of general prices on imports from Canada, Mexico and China is likely to invite reprisals that could harm farmers that they aim to protect,” said Douglass.

She added that perishable crops, including strawberries, lettuce and dairy products, are faced with an immediate danger because “commercial disturbances can mean deterioration, financial losses and a long -term lost market share which has been won for decades”.

Almond exports, Douglass said, dropped a quarter the last time the United States has imposed prices in 2018 on China “due to reprisal tasks”. The almond industry in California is estimated at around $ 4.7 billion,, With more than 70% of exported nuts, which makes it particularly vulnerable to prices.

“The Californian almond industry has closely monitored the American announcement of the prices and potential responses from Canada, Mexico and China,” Rick Kushman, a spokesperson for the Almond Board of California, said.

A study revealed that between April 2018 and April 2022, reprisal rates cost almond farmers about $ 875 million.

“Our industry continues to support the reduction of obstacles to trade and gentle market access for California almonds,” said Kushman.

Many farmers noted that during Trump’s first term, when China retaliated in prices with its own samples, the federal government has tried to make farmers whole by providing subsidies. But we do not know if the administration will do it again.

Daniel Sumner, a distinguished professor of agricultural economy at UC Davis, said that farmers could make several strokes. They could deal with higher costs for things like fertilizer and closing posts, some of which come from Canada, as well as reprisals on their exports. Canada, he noted, buys 41% of California’s exported bottles.

On the other hand, he said, some producers can see profits increase. Beef producers who compete with Canadian cattle breeders, for example, could see the profits increase. But consumers, he said, will probably see higher prices for grocery store for many products.