The Broncos needed a seismic shift in their leadership, and owner Greg Penner realized it. Two years ago, after seeing Dalton Risner shove Brett Rypien, after seeing Randy Gregory hit a Los Angeles Ram, after hearing “SpongeBob” character Patrick Star roast Russell Wilson, Penner fired Nathaniel Hackett.
You can draw a line between this Christmas Day game and Sunday. Win and the Broncos are in the playoffs. Penner saved the Broncos by hiring Sean Payton. He’s established a culture and created accountability, but with Denver on the doorstep of its first playoff appearance since 2015, questions linger about Payton’s mindset.
The Broncos have reached this position because they set a single-season sack record, have the Defensive Player of the Year favorite in Patrick Surtain II and have a quarterback in Bo Nix who has been at his best when it matters most.
But what about their coach? He deserves credit for getting the Broncos here, but are we sure he’s still a matchless sideline?
He was at the start of the season. He convinced a team of kids and rejects that they could defy expectations, becoming the single voice in their heads.
He is the undisputed compass. But is it fair to ask for better? Heck yeah.
Payton raised questions with his prevarication throughout the sequence. Against the Chargers, he remained unnecessarily aggressive before halftime after a 3-yard loss on a completion to Javonte Williams. The Chargers didn’t call a timeout and the Broncos — let’s be real — didn’t drive 50 yards in 17 seconds to set up a field goal with a horizontal passing attack. But they pushed forward, causing the Chargers to stop the clock and, after a bad Tremon Smith penalty, concede three points on the first converted free kick since 1976.
Payton’s explanation was simple: you’re always looking to score. Stay aggressive. Grrrr.
So what happened last Saturday? The clenched fist was the choice against the Chargers, but the courage disappeared against the Bengals. Payton opted not to go for the two-point conversion to win the game in regulation.
Analytics offered equal support for both picks, but Payton’s decision was notable because of who he is. He admitted this week that he guessed it. A tie would have ensured a playoff spot, and he indicated that figured into his choice. That would have made sense on most Sundays, but the idea that the Broncos could play even with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow for 10 minutes seemed incredibly optimistic, if not illusory.
The Broncos should have won with a first down on their final possession, but the fallout from the game was that Payton wasn’t comfortable following his instincts.
He needs to figure out who he is and settle down again. The Broncos aren’t good enough to win without him giving the helmets an advantage. He did it repeatedly in Cincinnati with well-crafted passing concepts and, at one point, persuading an official to call an illegal change.
The Broncos need this guy. They can’t make him run hot or cold. There is no way to lighten his burden. He signed up for this hazmat project, cleaning up the nuclear mess Hackett left behind.
But recent results have raised eyebrows. Payton is too good, too experienced, for his acumen to be the first thing questioned after losses.
In all honesty, he is in a difficult situation, unique in his career. He has never coached a rookie quarterback or run an offense with so little margin for error. This left him too dependent on Nix, with Payton falling into the trap of believing the kid is Drew Brees. With Brees, there was only one speed. Hurry, hurry, hurry.
That mindset doesn’t fit with the Broncos’ current staff. Laugh at the Pro Bowl selections if you want — the Zach Allen snub was a travesty — but it revealed a sobering truth: The Broncos didn’t have a single offensive player named the fifth alternate in fan voting, coaches and players.
They’re missing playmakers at tight end and running back, and they need a #1 receiver – Is it too early for me to bring up Tee Higgins again like I did in october ? – to team up with Courtland Sutton.
This left Payton conflicted. He knows he has plays that will work, but he doesn’t have the players to execute them. And in the absence of a trustworthy running game — he hasn’t had a single 100-yard rusher since taking over in Denver — he’s relying too much on Nix.
According to Next Gen Stats, Nix ranks seventh in dropbacks this season with 610, second among rookies behind Chicago’s Caleb Williams. Of 17 quarterbacks with more than 500 dropbacks, only Williams, CJ Stroud and Aaron Rodgers added lower expected points (an advanced stat for measuring a team’s performance on a play-to-play basis) than Nix.
Payton knows Nix can handle his responsibilities. But if you look at those around him, it’s not a fair request.
When Payton is in the bag, the Broncos look like a playoff team, crushing the entire NFC South and surpassing the Browns and Colts.
When he isn’t? The Broncos can’t beat a good team.
Payton was brought in to give the Broncos a fresh start. He succeeded. Now he has to recalibrate. It’s not the Saints. There is no simple solution: be aggressive or passive.
The answer with this team is somewhere in the middle, and fortunately for Payton, he gets another chance to show he understands that by picking up his most significant victory on Sunday.
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