Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, Mayor Eric Adams and the member of the Assembly Zohran Mamdani.
Photo by Lloyd Mitchell
The member of the Assembly of Queens Zohran Mamdani towards the election as mayor In November, can very well depend on whether the former governor Andrew Cuomo remains in the race.
Like swirl speculation if the former Cuomo will continue his campaign as an independence after granting democratic primary In Mamdani, a new survey shows the two candidates in statistical equality before the general elections of November.
The survey, independently directed by the Honan 48 -hour strategy group after the superb victory of Mamdani, showed that Mamdani and Cuomo have obtained 39% support among the probable electoral voters in a five -year -old race of the Republican Curtis Sliwa, the independent candidate Jim Walden and the republican mayor Eric Adams, who dragged to 13%.
In this hypothetical breed, given to 817 probable voters, the pollsters listed Mamdani on the lines of the party of democratic and workers, Cuomo as an independent on the combat and delivered voting line, and Adams as independent at the end anti-semitism and safe and affordable voting lines.
Sliwa received 7%, Walden interviewed 0%, while 2%of voters were undecided.
Although Cuomo conceded the primary night, Mamdani has not yet officially won the victory and currently has a 8 -point lead in first choice votes. The final result will be determined through listed choices of choice set for July 1.
However, Mamdani is expected to hold or extend his advanceThanks to the endorsements and shared support with several progressive candidates, including the Ville Brad Lander controller, who finished third.
Cuomo as a decisive factor?
Cuomo, who obtained an independent line on the November election, said in his concession speech on Tuesday that he and his team would examine the complete results of the choice before deciding on the next steps, claiming that their objective is to focus on what would best serve the objectives of the campaign, the Democratic Party and the city as a whole.
In the scenario that Cuomo does not appear on the ballot, the probers noted that Mamdani would lead Adams 15 points.
But if Adams had to abandon, Cuomo seems to recover the support of the likely voters of Adams and gain a slight advantage, leading Mamdani of 4 points – just outside the margin of error of the survey of ± 3.4%.
However, the scenario in which Adams abandons the race to play, given Hizzoner launched his re -election campaign As an independent on the marches of the town hall on Thursday.
Brutal popularity numbers for Adams
Looking at how candidates are perceived in the minds of voters, the investigation from June 25 to 26, noted a generalized dissatisfaction with regard to Mayor Adams. Two -thirds of voters (67%) disappear his professional performance, and 75% agree with the declaration that he is corrupt and should not request a re -election.
“Adams has a steep hill to climb, given some of the atmospheres around him in terms of the way the city is considered, then secondly, how voters see and assess his mandate as mayor in office,” said the Bradley Honan probe.
For the alleged democratic candidate, Mamdani, the survey says that it is considered unfavorably by 48% of voters and favorably by 40%. Cuomo was the only candidate in the results with a positive clear image: 56% favorable to 43% unfavorable.
“These are all the parties, all the districts, and reflect the composition of the voters who, in our view, will vote in the November elections,” said Honan about the investigation.
“ Mounting the voters ” and a big surprise
Just A survey In the Tuesday evening series, Mamdani predicted that Cuomo, notably the Honan Strategy Group, who, in an investigation in early June, predicted that the former governor would be 17% before Mamdani.
Honan acknowledged that many polls have faced Mamdani’s solid performance in the first round, but defended his business approach as one of the few to have constantly tried to account for “overvoltage voters” – in particular Democrats with little or no history of previous primary voting. He said Mamdani’s rise was visible throughout the electoral cycle and that they may have obtained a better indication of Tuesday’s results if they had interviewed voters closer to June 24.
He said that his team began to build his methodology in December and January thinking of these voters, citing previous electoral cycles, such as 2021, who saw an unexpected participation of people with low historical participation. He said it had informed their sampling strategy from the end of January, when they started to show Mamdani to a greater level of support than in other polls.
“We have beat the drum since January,” said Honan, suggesting that if part of Mamdani’s momentum may have been underestimated, the basis of their approach turned out to be directionally. He stressed that their first surveys already dealt Mamdani as a serious competitor, unlike other surveys.
Honan also noted that his team would publish more results related to affordability and economic concerns stimulating the feeling of voters, who, according to him, was the key to Mamdani’s resonance with under-represented voters.
