The changes are on the horizon for the Celtics this summer. They came even before Jayson Tatum fell with a torn Achilles, but this injury has changed the calculation again. Boston will no longer be considered a favorite in the East with Tatum put aside indefinitely in 2025-26, a thought that gives thought with serious financial and basketball penalties against the team this summer after pushing All-in to repeat in 2024-25.
The storm of the failure of the 2025 qualifiers has probably not yet been fully installed. Win a title in 2024 certainly softens, but Boston had an incredible opportunity here with a sensational list that could be deconstructed this season to a certain extent that will surprise certain people.
Brad Stevens and his staff have done a wise job to maximize the rivaled window of this team from the point of view of the construction of alignment in the past two years. They are now faced with their biggest challenge to date, but trying to reconfigure this group around a new difficult CBA and the uncertainty that comes with the recovery of Tatum’s injuries.
Stevens would not tip his hand over the future at a press conference earlier this week, but it is because he knows what is coming. There are several different levels of a reset which could arise in theory, but a massive financial step under the luxury tax is the most useful path of Boston for the enigma in the best way to reorganize for the future.
To see why, let’s review where the Celtics were last season from a financial point of view in what was their greatest franchise expenditure.
Celtics expenses 2024-25
Pay:: 193.3 million dollars
Tax penalties: $ 53.4 million
Total expenses: $ 246.7 million
Now compare this to their current financial commitment for next year
Celtics 2025-26 payroll commitments
Payroll: $ 227 million to 11 players
Tax penalties: $ 238 million
Total expenses: $ 465 million
This total projected expense is actually a little lower than that of the real cost of a complete list, because Boston would finally need to fill a list of 14 men. These figures are laughable at this stage. No team in the history of the NBA has never spent more than $ 380 million during one season in terms of tax and luxury tax penalties. Boston is not going to go ahead of more than $ 100 million in a year that Jayson Tatum could completely miss.
In fact, if a year ago which was logical to take a step back in succession, it would be 2025-26 when you look where the Celtics are. Boston should become a rehearsal tax team in 2025-2026, just as these rates soar in the new CBA. Boston is also faced with penalties from the second apron (cannot negotiate 2032 in the first round, painful commercial restrictions) left from their push all last season.
Needless to say, going to the second deck line ($ 207.8 million) is obvious to Boston with Tatum sidelined. In fact, it was going to be a very similar decision even if Tatum was in good health, by league sources.
Boston must go bigger with a reset to reduce $ 20 million in reduction on the payroll to go under the second apron for strategic and financial reasons. Instead, they should aim to dive near the luxury tax (187.8 million dollars).
Let’s say that Boston adopts a conservative approach and that the plains under the second apron (207.8 million dollars) for next season.
Payroll scenario 2025-25
Celtic ceiling leaf at 205 million dollars
Tax penalties: 66 million with rehearsal
Total expenses: $ 271 million
It is a much more manageable amount on the surface compared to the current amount, but it is still a record expenditure for the franchise. Is it logical for ownership to spend this great in a year that Tatum has a reasonable probability of missing entirely or is certainly limited when it comes back?
There is also the strategic element of a more drastic financial reset. Boston will be a rehearsal tax team in the foreseeable future until they decrease below the luxury tax in two of the next four seasons. The financial penalties to be a rehearsal tax team (a tax team in three of the last four years) have increased considerably with the new NBA collective agreement with repetitive tax teams paying three times more in tax penalties per dollar spent than the unparalleled teams of tax.
What this means from the point of view of the Celtics is that if they want to have more for their money later this decade with greater tax expenditure, they must reset the clock of the luxury tax repeater as soon as possible. There is no good time to necessarily do it when you want to face the stars in their prime numbers, but having a star away up to a year is a fairly good window to start this process.
There are also consolidation team benefits to be under the first dollars ($ 195 million) for Boston next year. Here are some of the greatest advantages:
– Possibilities of commercial correspondence No longer doubt: more latitude with rules of salary correspondence leads to more flexibility
-Access the exceptions of intermediate and bi-annual level for the signatures of free agents: these could be useful for Boston in the future because they lose talents via salary cup agreements.
—Ancuquer a player via signs and exchanges in free agency
—Aidans to create and use exchanged readers. Can also use intermediate and bi-annual levels such as TPES instead of free agent signatures.
—Algrégate players for twinning purposes
—Sign the buyout players who had higher wages than the exception of intermediate level.
Sending talents to access these advantages is not a clear choice. However, if the age or salaries of certain players are not durable with your future chronology contained, open the door to these types of team consolidation options will help you.
The most difficult question is naturally how exactly the brass Celtics could make their way below the luxury tax (187 million dollars) without causing too much damage to the team’s future. Here is an overview of the current Boston payroll situation for the 2025-26 season.
Jayson Tatum: $ 54.1 million
Jaylen Brown: $ 53.1 million
Jrue Holiday: $ 32.4 million
Kristaps Porzingis: $ 30.7 million
Derrick White: $ 28.1 million
Sam Hauser: $ 10 million
Payton Pritchard: $ 7.2 million
Baylor Scheierman: $ 2.6 million
Xavier Tillman: $ 2.5 million
Neemias Queta: $ 2.3 million
Jordan Walsh: $ 2.2 million (not guaranteed)
The cost reduction challenge begins for Boston with a single team (Brooklyn) currently having the wage ceiling space necessary to absorb a big business (more than 25 million dollars) without sending a return salary. The net would certainly want something to rent their ceiling space, so that Boston can attach a choice or another asset to Kristaps Porzingis or Jrue Holiday in what would actually be a salary dump if they take this path.
Another path would be to correct a certain number of cost reduction movements by dealing with a vacation or in porzingis for several players on smaller offers. Boston could then return these players to other teams for more savings or a different return. It would be a much easier way with the holidays because he is the player in the more proven qualifiers in his career.
Even with a move like this, there would still be much more work to do to get to the tax and still build a competitive list. Boston would not necessarily have to go under the tax (187 million dollars) before the start of the season, but they should put themselves realistic at a time to do so on the deadline for trade if they want to follow this path. How Tatum looks at this point of his recovery could take into account this choice of dive entirely under the tax or not.
How Boston strategically comes from this type of cost cutting will be covered here in Masslive in the coming weeks, but that will involve multilayer movements.
In the end, there are obvious means (move a combination of Porzingis, Holiday, Sam Hauser) to achieve a reset like this. If these paths lead to dead ends or unwanted results (regain money, etc.), then more controversial movements (exchange Jaylen Brown for massive transport) should be considered good to take a step like this.
Boston would not necessarily have to say goodbye to their own free agents in this scenario (Al Horford, Luke Kornet), either if they can create enough space for these cheaper agreements with their other cost reduction movements.
In the end, these potential paths will be dissected more closely in the coming weeks, but a simple half-measure for next season (exceeding themselves under the second apron) would not reach much for the future of this group beyond the limited cost savings.
The Celtics could always try to win matches in this more important financial reset scenario and they would always have the talent to be an eliminatory team that will save more injuries. Heck, if Tatum returns next year, they could have a realistic chance in the playoff series to be competitive in the East. However, their real path to the fight against the fight in 2026 and beyond would ultimately become more lasting if they take this potentially painful financial step now.
