There are times when predictions delight and others when they defy logic.
This is one of the latter. Guides were very confident across most of the Commonwealth, seeing between 6 and 12 inches of snow.
As the trail moved south, confidence disappeared. Why this change? Why this backpedaling? It is easy to say: “The weather is changeable. Changes are happening. » But the crucial point lies in the double jet streams which influence the path of the storm.
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Early on we saw a very strong storm manipulating the steering currents as it went along. Over time, the storm appeared weaker (pivot change). Now at the mercy of the guiding currents, one coming from the north which ended up taking over and moving the storm towards the south.
The evolution of the trend is the weakest link in weather forecasting. The proverbial “butterfly flapping its wings” that MIT Professor Ed Lorenz called chaos was clearly at play here. But we still have some accumulation. And there will still be some impact on travel and cleaning.
Rain will prevent the storm from starting in some places, while wet snow will have difficulty accumulating in others.
As the “flesh” of the storm rolls in through the late morning and early afternoon, we will transition to snow and see the majority of the accumulation. Winds will intensify along the coast, with gusts up to 40+ at the water’s edge.
Coastal flooding is expected at high tide at 2 p.m. We will be between minor and moderate in many places, a far cry from the major flooding last month.
The end of the storm arrives late Tuesday afternoon and this evening (in Cape Town).
The winds will change and we expect temperatures to drop below freezing. Some slippery spots are possible Wednesday morning.
The cold remains a factor at the end of the week. We still have light snow expected late Thursday and early Friday.
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