Bold Commanders vs. Lions Prediction: David Montgomery Dominates

It’s playoff time, and that means the Lions are getting more reinforcements. After seeing a huge defensive boost following the return of Alex Anzalone in Week 18, the Lions are set to return David Montgomery to the lineup for their Divisional Round matchup against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have one of the most powerful offenses in the league. However, their weakness lies where the Lions like it: in run defense.

Bold Prediction of the Week: David Montgomery averages over 5.0 yards per carry in return from injury

David Montgomery doesn’t always have the same flashy stats as Jahmyr Gibbs, and that has a lot to do with usage. Montgomery is the default for short-yardage and goal-line situations, and his runs generally happen more between the tackles than Gibbs, who will have more opportunities to use his speed to get to the edge. This usually means Montgomery doesn’t rack up the same mileage as Gibbs.

As a result, Montgomery has only crossed the 5.0 yards per carry threshold three times in his 14 games this season. Notably, two of them were outright beaters against the Dallas Cowboys and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The third was the season opener, so it’s been a while since we’ve seen Montgomery do that against a worthy opponent.

However, commanders may have the right recipe for Montgomery to cross that threshold again. The Commanders have been one of the worst run defenses in the league this year. They had a hot period from late November to December where they each held three (mediocre) teams to

The Commanders also present a particularly good matchup for the Lions offense. Only two teams in NFL history have gone three games in a season without a turnover or punt: this year’s Commanders and this year’s Lions. That means you can expect a shootout no matter how good a recipe Aaron Glenn can concoct for this Lions defense. If the Commanders offense stays in the game, then the Lions won’t necessarily be in obvious running clock situations. This should mean David Montgomery will receive more honest looks from the starting seven, which will lead to more rushing yards.

Obviously, nothing is a guarantee given Montgomery’s injury. He’s coming back from a torn MCL that was initially expected to sideline him for the rest of the year. It’s unclear how close to 100% he’ll be, or whether he’ll need to shake off the rust to begin with. The Lions also expect a change at the offensive line. Kevin Zeitler has been ruled out for Saturday’s game, with Christian Mahogany expected to replace him at right-back. This leaves a small question mark as to whether the running game will be as consistent as usual.

Ultimately, the Commanders present what is likely the weakest run defense the Lions have seen in two months. This is a great opportunity to capitalize, but it’s unclear how willing Montgomery will be to do so. If he can get going and everything goes well with replacing Mahogany, then expect him to cross the 5.0 YPC threshold en route to a playoff win over Washington.