The poll shows that no economist expects a rate hike before the end of June. But 21 of 61 economists believe rates could rise during the third quarter of this year. At the same time, 17 out of 55 economists instead forecast a rate hike in the fourth quarter. The median forecast calls for the upper bound of the overnight call rate to be at 0.25% in the fourth quarter and to remain there through the end of 2025.
Of a smaller sample of 36 economists who provided a specific forecast on when the BoJ might act, 19% forecast a move in July. But October is the favorite, with about 36% expecting a decision by then. Meanwhile, 31% see the BoJ acting in “2025 or later.”
When it comes to the Japanese yen, almost all economists (91%) say Tokyo will intervene at some point to prevent the currency from weakening further.
As for the levels they expect, 16 out of 21 economists expect action at 155 for USD/JPY. The others instead see movement at 156 (2), 157 (1) and 158 (2).
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