Bitcoin: While the American trade war is coming back, is the BTC the last refuge on the market?

• Tariff reprisals of 34% of China deepen global trade tensions, which has an impact on bitcoin and global markets.
• Analysts consider Bitcoin as resilient hedge in the midst of market disorders induced by prices and hopes for reducing Fed levels.

Tensions of the global economy have intensified as a result of China’s rapid response to the last trade measures of the United States.

China’s pricing plans

After President Donald Trump announced radical reciprocal prices on April 2, China retaliated by imposing a rate of 34% on all American imports, in force on April 10.

This climbing of the tit-for-tat adds fuel to an already lively trade war, which raises concerns in several markets, including the crypto.

Bitcoin (BTC), which had briefly climbed to $ 84,000, quickly slipped below $ 82,000 after China’s announcement.

The European Union also pointing out the preparation for the introduction of countermeasures, market volatility could deepen, in particular in the space of digital assets.

Analysts remain confident on Bitcoin

However, in the midst of that, analyst Eric Weiss showed optimism around Bitcoin as he noted,

“While the tariff war degenerates and the actions bleed, Wall St will finally realize that there is an alternative: Bitcoin. No risk of profit. No geopolitics. Just mathematics.

The announcement also moved to the US dollar, the dollar index (DXY) sliding 2% – a sign of confidence of shaken investors.

In Answer, China quickly called on the United States to withdraw its prices and warned against countermeasures to protect its national interests.

Polymarket bets strong on the upcoming recession

That said, the fears of recession also gain ground in the prediction markets.

On Kalshi, the probability of an American recession in 2025 jumped at 61%, while Polymarket shows a peak similar to 57%, marking a notable increase of only 20%earlier this year.

Despite the climbing of trade tensions, analysts like Kevin Capital suggest that the cryptography market can remain more resilient than traditional actions.

While the sectors linked to the S&P 500 suffer directly from prices, the crypto seems darkened by the macroeconomic feeling, in particular around the expectations of interest rates.

With Fed Futures Futures now projecting five rate drops, optimism lingers that monetary policy could provide a cushion for digital assets.

However, Kevin warns that this optimism is fragile – the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, should reject the possibility of ensuring, the crypto could quickly follow actions in a deeper crisis.

For the moment, with Bitcoin bouncing on strong employment data in the United States, the market objective remains set on the figures of the upcoming IPC and the position of Powell, which could dictate the short-term trajectory of crypto.