- The negative trend of market capitalization compared to the ceiling carried out is historically a lowering signal
- The judgment in the growth of the attachment reserve indicated a stable purchasing power, rather than increasing,
The Global M2, a classification of the money supply which includes funds from the money market, refers to the money supply of major economies such as the United States, China and the euro zone.
In a recent report, it was noted that the global money supply of M2 had become parabolic in 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated.
Historically, such differences do not last long. Therefore, there is a chance for Bitcoin to appreciate.
On the other hand, the trade war initiated by the United States has held the confidence of investors. The price of reprisals in China 34% on April 2 deepened tensions, also affecting the cryptography market.
Evaluation of the lower arguments for bitcoin
The FNB Bitcoin Spot have been weak in recent days. The macroeconomic perspectives pessimistic as a result of the current trade wars were a factor here.
Source: Coringlass
The BlackRock Ibit spot (Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF) has seen some entries in the last two weeks, but most of the other products have witnessed the recently sales pressure. This described a feeling of short -lived downward.
In the middle of this lower background, the CEO and co-founder of the Crypto Analytics Popular Society said that the “bull cycle was finished”.
Is the BTC Bull cycle over?
In an article on X (formerly Twitter), he explained the concept of the ceiling carried out to support this argument.
Source: Ki Young Ju on X
The market capitalization of an asset is calculated by multiplying its food in circulation with its current market price.
On the other hand, the CAP carried out measures the Bitcoin market capitalization according to the value to which each part was moved for the last time. This offers a more precise view of the capital flowing on the Bitcoin market.
The analyst used 365 -day mobile averages (MA) for market capitalization and the ceiling carried out to calculate the MA at 365 days of the Delta growth.
A drop in this metric signals an increased ceiling associated with a drop in market capitalization – a trend observed since November -December 2024.
Ki Young Ju pointed out that capital entries not being the cause of price gains indicate a bear market. At the time of analysis, the MA of Delta growth was negative, which aligned with the bear market conditions.
A similar situation occurred in December 2021, after the previous summit of $ 69,000 in Bitcoin and its subsequent drop. Ju has also predicted that a short -term rally is unlikely, and this downward phase could persist for another six months.
Source: cryptocurrency
According to CAP data made, the start of another bear market seemed possible. Meanwhile, on the other hand, the Tether (USDT) exchange reserve has interrupted its growth in recent months.
Opposing these opinions, the M2 global rise in power mentioned above stressed the increase in purchasing power on the market.
A slowdown in the growth of the attachment reserve accompanied the summit of the previous market.
The data here suggested that another bear market may be in progress, but it should be noted that none of the usual cycle measures have yet reached overheated levels reflecting the previous cycle.
