Bitcoin Could Soon Hit Six Figures Regardless of Election, Investors Say

Despite the increasingly partisan sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry, Bitcoin will thrive in the long term, regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election in November.

It’s a view that many cryptocurrency investors are beginning to accept, as the wave of optimism sparked by former President Donald Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency overtures this summer begins to fade.

“Do I think we’ll be in the six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll be in the six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin has always been an investment that fits more into the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereign states and the United States,” Lubka added. “None of the candidates are changing that.”

Fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would somehow cap the price of bitcoin or push it down are overblown, said James Davies, co-founder of cryptocurrency trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. Cryptocurrency startups may be more challenged, but the industry will continue to fight to grow and thrive, he noted. It helped that bitcoin became more institutionalized than ever this year with the introduction of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

“Some of our communities … have become echo chambers and are convinced that the sky is going to fall if one side wins,” Davies said. “The truth is that the market is robust, it’s not U.S.-centric, and it hasn’t reacted negatively to major events on either side” of the partisan divide.

“This is about opportunity and regulation for US-based users, not the price of a global commodity,” he added. “Cryptocurrency needs to take a page from traditional finance, it needs to put pressure on both sides, align with both, and succeed regardless of the election. If we want to build a great ecosystem, we can’t afford to be partisan.”

Exaggerated risk

Lubka acknowledged that some observers are “overestimating the risks of a Harris presidency” because of the hostility the industry has faced during the Biden administration. That said, he added, “all the signs we’re seeing with Harris represent a continued de-escalation” of Biden-era crypto rhetoric.

“The election results will have minimal impact on bitcoin’s performance over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Tyrone Ross, founder and president of registered investment advisor 401 Financial. “Many companies are still working through access to ETFs, rate cuts are coming, and retail trading through centralized custodians is at an all-time low. It will certainly be more challenging for young startups, but as a quality institutional asset in development, it will continue to prove itself no matter who is president.”

Bitcoin has been trading between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024, after hitting its all-time high above $73,000 in March. Investors widely expect the price to continue falling until U.S. voters choose the next president. However, election news has recently had less of an impact on bitcoin’s price, which is more influenced by macroeconomic developments.

After Tuesday night’s debate between Harris and Trump, bitcoin fell about 3%, though investors attributed that to interest rate updates in Japan and some positioning around U.S. inflation data for August released early Wednesday.

Growing partisan sentiment

In recent months, there has been speculation that the election would serve as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin — with many seeing a potential second Trump presidency as a boon for the sector. The former president, for example, addressed the annual bitcoin conference in Nashville in late July and made sure that a reference was made high on the Republican Party platform. This week, analysts at Bernstein said the way to invest in a potential Trump presidency is through bitcoin, adding that if he wins on Nov. 5, the cryptocurrency could hit a new all-time high around $80,000. A Harris victory, however, could push bitcoin toward $40,000, Bernstein said.

“If Trump wins in November, will there be an immediate surge? Yes, absolutely. If Harris wins, could there be immediate selling pressure? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But in the medium term, I don’t think that’s the dynamic,” said Swan Bitcoin’s Lubka.

Vice President Harris has not shared a public opinion on crypto, but some in the industry worry that she is antagonistic to crypto and shares views with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, who are believed to be holding back crypto adoption.

“There haven’t been any clear statements, but there has been some bad history under the Biden administration…so I understand why people are paying attention,” Lubka said.

While there are concerns about the Biden administration’s stance on bitcoin, “I would remind investors … that bitcoin has done extremely well” under the current administration, Lubka added. “It’s been one of the best-performing assets in the world during a period when everyone was against it. Governments have traditionally been at least mildly hostile to bitcoin throughout its history, and it’s done extremely well.”

Bitcoin has been the best performing asset in all but three years since 2012.