Bipartisan consensus for renewable energy nears end

One of the most striking things about the explosion of renewable energy that’s happening in the United States is that it’s happening largely in states that are governed by politicians who don’t believe in the problem that wind and solar are supposed to solve. Acceptance of the evidence for climate change tends to be lowest among Republicans, but many of the states where renewable energy has exploded—wind in Wyoming and Iowa, solar in Texas—are governed by Republicans.

This is partly because until 2020, there was a strong bipartisan consensus in favor of wind and solar energy development, with support above 75% in both parties. Since then, however, support among Republicans has fallen dramatically, approaching 50%, according to polling data released this week.

To some extent, none of this should come as a surprise. The current Republican leader has said that wind turbines cause cancer and that offshore wind power kills whales. And conservative-backed groups have spread false information to drum up opposition to solar power installations.

Meanwhile, since 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act has been touted as one of the Biden administration’s signature achievements and has driven significant investment in renewable energy, largely in Republican states. Negative partisanship is undoubtedly contributing to this decline in support.

The data from the new poll, collected by the Pew Research Center, are particularly striking: They vary dramatically by age. When given a choice between increasing fossil fuel production or expanding renewable energy, Republicans under 30 favored renewables by a 2-to-1 margin. Republicans over 30, by contrast, favored fossil fuels by a margin that increased with age, peaking at 3-to-1 in favor of fossil fuels among those 65 and older. The decline in support occurred among those over 50 starting in 2020; support remained stable among younger groups through 2024, when the 30- to 49-year-old demographic began to shift toward fossil fuels.

Democrats, by contrast, are off by 75 points in favor of renewable energy, with little difference across age groups and no indication of significant change over time. They are also twice as likely as Republicans to think a solar farm will help the local economy.

Similar differences emerged when Pew asked about policies to encourage the sale of electric vehicles, with 83% of Republicans opposed to making half of all cars sold electric by 2032. In contrast, nearly two-thirds of Democrats supported the policy.

There is also a rural-urban divide (consistent with Republicans enjoying greater support from rural voters). Forty percent of city dwellers believe a solar farm would improve the local economy, compared to only 25% of rural dwellers. Rural people are also more likely to say that solar farms make the landscape unattractive and take up too much space. (Suburban participants fall consistently between rural and urban participants.)

What is behind these changes? The biggest factor appears to be negative partisanship combined with the election of Joe Biden.

Among Republicans, support for all forms of energy began to shift in 2020: fossil fuels, renewable energy and nuclear. Among Democrats, this is largely false. Their high level of support for renewable energy and their aversion to fossil fuels have remained largely unchanged. The one exception is nuclear energy, where support has increased among both Democrats and Republicans (the Biden administration has adopted a number of pro-nuclear policies).

This is not to say that non-political factors play no role. The rapid expansion of renewable energy means that more and more people are seeing installations opening close to home and seeing this as a sign of a changing society. Some degree of backlash was almost inevitable, and in this case the close ties between conservative lobbyists and fossil fuel interests were poised to take advantage.