Bills go from favorite to underdog in divisional round rematch against Ravens

Who loves being an underdog more than Bills Mafia? In a week of MVP talk and NFL fandom more toxic than one can imagine — including a Baltimore reporter recalling the time he called Buffalo a “loser’s city” (and worse for a Bills fan), and fake quotes from Matt Milano’s scoreboard. go around – the game itself is considered a virtual draw.

What are the chances?

The Buffalo Bills opened as -1.5-point favorites when the FanDuel Sportsbook lines were initially released, but it’s now the Baltimore Ravens who are listed as -1.5-point favorites. At the time of publication, 52% of bets and 60% of money wagered were on the Ravens, according to Focus on professional football‘(PFF) betting model.

This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that the Bills have been listed as home underdogs in a playoff game. The only other time Buffalo was a dog at home occurred during the AFL era against a Hank Strahm-led Kansas City Chiefs team in 1967 – a game that Buffalo (then a 3.5 underdog) points) would lose 31-7.

The closest game between the Bills since the invention of the Lombardi Trophy was “The Comeback” game against the Houston Oilers in 1993, where Buffalo was a 2-point favorite. There was also a tie between the last playoff series (against the Chiefs) and the last playoff game against the Ravens, where the Bills were 2.5 point favorites in each game.

Buffalo went undefeated at home in the regular season for the third time in franchise history this season.

Clearly, a lot has changed since these teams met in Week 4 to ESPN Monday Night Football. Buffalo was then a slight underdog by 2.5 points. When you factor in the typical three points allowed for home-field advantage, it seems the books and the public agree that the Ravens are the better team, at least on paper.

The 35-10 loss at Baltimore surely plays a role, but the Bills have the advantage of having linebackers Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, as well as nickel cornerback Taron Johnson, all available this time around. Additionally, Buffalo now features an offense that knows itself much better than in the first month of the season.

NFL playoff history of home underdogs

Since the turn of the century, local playoff underdogs are 24-12-1 ATS. This will be just the fourth time a team has been a road favorite in the divisional round since 2000, according to Stathead.

These road teams are 1-2 ATS and straight away, with the only winner being the San Francisco 49ers against the Carolina Panthers in January 2014.

The Bills are 20-17-3 in the Josh Allen era as underdogs and 5-5 as home underdogs since 2018. However, they have not been favored at home since the 2020 season finale against the Miami Dolphins where most of the backups played and the Dolphins were competing for a playoff spot.

It’s safe to say this is uncharted territory for the Bills with Josh Allen since 2020.

Baltimore has been favored in three road playoff games in team history, covering the spread in all of them – the most recent coming at Tennessee in the 2021 playoffs.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson is 44-41-1 as a career favorite while Josh Allen is 19-14-2 as an underdog. Do you think the odds are really stacked against Buffalo this Sunday?