Bihar elections: SWOT analysis of Congress-RJD alliance

The political battlefield is set for a high-stakes contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA bloc, led in the state by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Both camps are preparing for a direct electoral showdown in this politically crucial state.

Below you will find a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) of the INDIA bloc, conducted by the RJD-Congress group.

Highlights

Solid vote bank: The RJD has a loyal Muslim-Yadav (MY) support base, collectively representing almost 30% of the electorate.

Emerging leadership: With the withdrawal of RJD founder Lalu Prasad, the party has positioned his son, Tejashwi Yadav, as its undisputed leader. A former deputy chief minister, Tejashwi has gained ground among the youth of Bihar.

Revitalized Congress Framework: The Congress voter Adhikar Yatra, led by Rahul Gandhi, helped energize party workers and improve grassroots engagement across the state.

Weaknesses

Dynastic control and legal issues: The RJD remains heavily dominated by Lalu Prasad, Tejashwi Yadav and their close family members – many of whom face legal action, particularly in ongoing investigations such as the land-for-jobs scam being investigated by the Enforcement Directorate (ED).

Internal discord: Despite Tejashwi’s growing acceptance among party members, the frequent outbursts and erratic behavior of his siblings like Tej Pratap Yadav and other family members often divert his attention from party and alliance management to fighting internal fires.

Opportunities

Generational change: Tejashwi’s youthful image offers the INDIA bloc a chance to revamp its image more broadly. His emphasis on job creation, migration and law and order resonates with the state’s aspirational voters.

Lever of the caste census: While the ruling NDA claims credit for the caste survey conducted two years ago, the RJD’s participation in government during this period – and its role in increasing quotas for underprivileged communities – may bolster its credibility when it comes to ‘mandal politics’.

Synergy of alliances: Partnering with like-minded parties such as the Congress and CPI(ML) Liberation, coupled with Nitish Kumar’s recent return to the NDA fold, could help the RJD consolidate the Muslim vote and attract disenfranchised groups.

Threats

Internal ambitions and tensions within the alliance: After being out of power for a long time, the INDIA bloc faces the twin challenges of managing ambitious leaders in its ranks and maintaining unity among various alliance partners.