Bihar 2025 elections: two opposing forces and a joker, who has the advantage

Bihar is a classic example of alliances and a complex array of political parties – a veritable alphabet soup unique to this poll-bound state.

Besides Congress and BJP, there are RJD, JD(U), VIP, HAM, LJP, AIMIM, JSP, RLM, Left parties and JAP.

No party has exceeded 25 per cent of votes in the Bihar assembly elections in the last two decades. In this scenario, where the leading party’s vote share is in the 20s, alliances are crucial.

In Bihar, one party never wins; it’s always a coalition of four to five. The complex caste politics in the state makes it difficult for newcomers, despite the ban in place.

I recently returned from a week-long tour of Bihar and will analyze who will have the upper hand in the upcoming elections. Does the NDA have an advantage in the final phase? Has the opposition reached its peak too soon with its ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’ on the SIR (Special Intensive Review) issue? Let’s break it down.

First, the NDA has a formidable caste alliance this time. The BJP, JD(U), LJP, HAM and RLM cover almost all caste groups in Bihar, while the Muslim-Yadav bloc remains the opposition force. The ruling alliance encompasses both forward caste and backward caste voters.

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Another strength of the NDA is its emphasis on development and infrastructure, including new bridges, highways and airports. There is a silent trust among senior leaders.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, despite being 74 years old and facing questions from the opposition over his mental capabilities, still enjoys a lot of goodwill and is considered wise. The game changer for the NDA is the ₹10,000 scheme given to 75 lakh women under the CM Mahila Rozgar Yojana.

Women, who used this money to buy goats or calves, still trust Nitish Kumar. The ban followed by this significant monetary transfer solidified their support for it.

The NDA seat-sharing arrangement reflects cohesion and mutual agreement rather than pressure politics. The BJP and JD(U) will contest 101 seats each, marking a significant change in their dynamics as they will contest an equal number of seats for the first time. This changes the traditional notion of “big brother, little brother” regarding the two parties.

Chirag Paswan’s LJP is contesting 29 seats, marking its complete return to the NDA. In 2020, they contested 135 seats independently, and in 2015, they contested 42 seats when JD(U) was not part of the NDA. In 2010, they contested 75 seats in the RJD. This time, mutual agreement prevailed.

Jitan Ram Manjhi, compared to the seven seats he contested last time, got six seats in the NDA, along with a Lok Sabha MP and a Union minister enhancing his stature. Upendra Kushwaha is currently in the Rajya Sabha and may become a Union minister in the future. It was also allocated six seats in the Assembly. All alliance partners publicly welcomed the seat-sharing agreement, reflecting the cordiality within the NDA.

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In the 2020 elections, Chirag and Kushwaha contested from outside the NDA and had a negative impact on the JD(U)’s seat tally. This time, with both being part of the NDA, the risks of such damage are minimized.

The NDA is facing the challenge of Nitish Kumar’s mental health with incessant attacks from the opposition portraying him as an ‘absentee CM’. However, many still see him as a wise and empathetic leader. Moreover, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign is yet to begin.

On the other hand, the Mahagathbandan appears disorganized and may have peaked too soon with its yatra last month on the SIR issue. Seat distribution issues and unreliable allies like VIP’s Mukesh Sahni are creating problems.

In the 2020 polls, the RJD performed well, but the Congress dragged the alliance down by winning only 19 of the 70 seats it contested. This time it seems similar.

The Congress created some sentiment on the SIR issue with Rahul Gandhi’s yatra, but it seems to have peaked early. Tejashwi Yadav seemed overshadowed by Gandhi and went on to lead his own yatra.

Stuck with a 23 percent vote share in the last elections, the RJD is trying to expand beyond its MY vote bank, but it seems difficult. Complicating matters further is the Yadav family’s legal troubles.

In a desperate move, Tejashwi announced a promise of a government job for every family in Bihar, which seems more like an electoral charade than a calculated policy. This promise would require the creation of 21.5 million new jobs, which would cost nearly ₹4.6 lakh crore per year, almost double the state’s total budget.

Bihar is in a difficult economic situation, and the giveaway culture of the RJD or JD(U) is not helping. The wild card in this election is Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party.

Kishor appeals to the youth of Bihar, urging them to rise above caste politics and vote for their future, end immigration and lift the ban. He capitalizes on the frustration of youth. His vote share, whether in the single or double digits, could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election.