PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – MAY 29: U.S. President Joe Biden stands on stage as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris introduces him during a campaign rally at Girard College on May 29, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Biden and Harris are using today’s rally to launch a national campaign aimed at courting Black voters, a group that has traditionally come out in favor of Biden, but their support is expected to be lower than in 2020. (Photo d ‘Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
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Young voters have been a crucial voting bloc for Democrats for decades.
Voters aged 18 to 29 made up about 1 in 6 voters in 2020, and President Biden won them by more than 20 points, according to exit polls. He also won by double digits among voters under 45, who made up 40% of the electorate.
But surveys showed Biden struggled with the groups, and the latest NPR/PBS NewsTime/A Marist survey highlights the depth of his problems with them.
That’s one reason Biden is locked in a tight race with former President Donald Trump and falls behind when third-party candidates come forward, the survey found.
In a head-to-head with Trump, Biden and Trump are statistically tied, with Biden narrowly ahead 50% to 48%. He leads by only 4 points among voters under 45 and by 6 points among Generation Z/Millennials.
But when independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are introduced, Biden trails Trump by 4 points. Asset led by 6 with Generation Z/Millennials and by 8 with the under 45 group in this scenario.
“They don’t see much connection with him,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey, said of young voters. “They’re worried about the cost of living, which is not just for them, but clearly as they look at transitioning into adulthood, the cost of living, housing costs, how to transition to adulthood. The next step seems to be an obstacle. … They see the economy like many other voters and are putting it at Biden’s door for the moment.”
Diving deeper into the issues Biden faces with young voters
Young voters don’t approve of the job Biden is doing, don’t particularly like him, don’t think he has the mental fitness to be president, and don’t think he handles the most important issues very well – whether it is the economy, immigration or the war between Israel and Hamas.
Consider:
- Only 24% of 18-29 year olds approve of the work he does.
- 62% have an unfavorable opinion of him, while Trump gets a net positive rating: 49% to 42%. This is the most favorable rating for Trump among all age groups. Among voters overall, Trump has a slightly higher unfavorable rating (54%) than Biden (52%).
- Those under 45 and Gen Z/Millennials are most likely to say they will jump the presidential line when they vote in 2024 (12%). More bad news for Biden: It’s about the same as non-whites, people in big cities and the Northeast — all of Biden’s key groups and regions.
- Generation Z/Millennials are the least likely to say they will definitely vote (69%).
- Gen Z/Millennials are the age group most likely to say they are voting for RFK Jr. (11%).
That doesn’t necessarily mean they shifted heavily toward Trump, as younger voters are among the most likely to have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, the so-called “double haters.”
“It’s still a question of where they end up,” Miringoff said, adding, “It’s about the dissatisfied, detached group that doesn’t like the candidates. So it’s not that they’re rushing toward Trump, but they’re just not where Biden had this group in the past.”
- Only 54% of Generation Z/Millennials say they have definitely decided who they will vote for.
- One in five people under 45 say a guilty verdict against Trump would make them less likely to vote for the former president, although one in five also say they would. more He is likely to vote for Trump if he is found not guilty. So they might be somewhat persuasive in one way or another.
- An April Marist poll found that just 37% of voters aged 18 to 29 approved of Biden’s handling of the economy, compared to 42% overall.
There is a potential opening for Biden with the group:
Why young voters are so disappointed in Biden
The economy
Prices are a priority for voters in general. Despite strong signs in the economy, including low unemployment and wages above inflation, people have not gotten used to a new post-pandemic normal.
When people are in a bitter mood, especially regarding the economy, they tend to blame the president — even though that’s one of the things a president has the least control over.
Younger voters are even less satisfied than voters overall with Biden’s handling of the economy:
- A January NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that just 23% of voters aged 18 to 29 approved of his handling of immigration, compared to 29% overall.
- A recent New York Times/Siena poll found that voters ages 18 to 29 were the age group most likely to think Biden is too old to be an effective president. A whopping 82% of them said this, which is 8-12 points higher than all other age groups. This was more than 20 points worse than how they viewed Trump on the subject, despite being only about 4 years younger.
- An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll from last year found that younger voters were more likely to say they were “genuinely concerned” about Biden’s mental fitness to be president. This was also true of recent Marist polls in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina.
- does not give enough humanitarian aid to the Palestinians (40%) and
- should cease all support for Israel until there is a ceasefire (39%).
Immigration
Biden also gets low marks on his handling of immigration, but, again, fewer young voters approve of his handling of this issue than the population as a whole:
His age and mental fitness
The Israel-Hamas war
Despite widespread protests on college campuses this spring, the war between Israel and Hamas is not the top issue for young voters.
A Harvard poll of young people found that inflation, health care and housing topped the list of concerns for 18-29 year olds. But war is yet another high-profile issue on which young voters are breaking with Biden.
In the latest NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist survey, 18-29 year olds were most likely, regardless of age group, to say that the U.S.:
Forty-five percent of 18-29 year olds think the United States is doing too much to provide military aid to Israel. Forty-eight percent of people aged 30 to 44 think so too.
These views, however, are out of step with those of the strong majority of the country – and put Biden in a bind.
Overall, 71% said that either the United States should support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, but should also use its influence to encourage Israel to protect the Palestinians (48%), or that they should fully support all of Israel’s military actions against Hamas (23%).
More and more people say they have decided who they will vote for.
In April, 60% said they had made their decision. This figure increased to 64% last month and now stands at 66%.
Trump and Biden voters equally say they already know who they are voting for and that nothing will change their minds (68% each).
Gen Z/Millennials and freelancers are the least likely to say they have made up their minds, and 1 in 5 female freelancers said they are truly undecided, the majority of all groups.
Biden is catching up with college-educated and older voters
Biden continues to do better than in 2020 among older voters and white college-educated voters, both men and women.
For example, Biden is 15 points ahead of Trump among baby boomers, even when including third-party candidates. Trump won older groups of voters in 2020.
Biden also has huge leads among college-educated white voters. In fact, there is a net 54-point gap in support for Biden between college-educated and non-college-educated whites.
And these are groups that said they were among the most likely to vote.
“It’s the fourth inning and there’s still a lot of the game left to play,” Miringoff said. “Turnout is the hidden piece of this puzzle. This is not an election that draws people to one side or the other. Trump has his base; Biden has his anti-Trump base, and the rest are just kind of hanging out there.
The survey was conducted among 1,261 adults from May 21 to 23 by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/- 3.4 percentage points.
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