WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden entered the White House four years ago with a foreign policy agenda that foregrounded repairing alliances strained by four years of an “America First” worldview. » by Republican Donald Trump.
The one-term Democrat took office amid the worst global pandemic in a century, and his plans were quickly tested by a series of complex international crises: the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Hamas’ intervention. brutal 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the ongoing war in the Middle East.
As Biden prepares to leave office, he continues to insist that his unique term has made great strides in restoring American credibility on the world stage and has proven that the United States remains an indispensable partner all over the world. That message will be the focus of a speech he will give Monday afternoon about his foreign policy legacy.
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Yet Biden’s case for foreign policy achievements will be clouded and shaped, at least in the short term, by the messy counterfactual that American voters are returning management of the country to Trump and his protectionist worldview.
“The real question is: Does the rest of the world believe today that the United States is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world when it comes to our reservoir of national strength, our economy, our innovation base? , our ability to attract investment, our ability to attract talent? said White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan in an interview with The Associated Press. “When we took office, a lot of people probably would have been talking about China. … Nobody says that anymore.”
After four turbulent years across the globe, the Democratic administration says Biden has given the world a steady hand and left the United States and its allies on firmer footing.
But Biden, from the start of his presidency, during which he frequently spoke of his desire to demonstrate that “America is back,” has been tested by war, calamity and miscalculation .
The chaotic US exit from Afghanistan was an initial setback for Biden
As the United States completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Biden has kept his campaign promise to end America’s longest war.
But the 20-year conflict came to an ominous end: the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed, a horrific bombardment killed 13 U.S. troops and 170 others, and thousands of desperate Afghans descended on the Kabul airport looking for a way out before the government arrives. The last American plane took off over the Hindu Kush.
The debacle in Afghanistan was a major setback just eight months into Biden’s presidency from which he has struggled to recover.
Biden’s Republican critics, including Trump, cast it as a defining moment in a failed presidency.
“I’ll tell you what happened, he was so bad with Afghanistan, it was such a horrible moment, the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country,” Trump said during his only presidential debate with Biden in 2024, just weeks before the Democrat. announced that he was ending his re-election campaign.
Biden’s legacy in Ukraine may depend on Trump’s future approach
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden rallied his allies in Europe and beyond to provide Ukraine with billions of dollars in military and economic aid, including more than $100 billion from the US alone. UNITED STATES. This allowed kyiv to stay in the fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s much larger and better-equipped army. Biden’s team has also coordinated with allies to hit Russia with a steady stream of sanctions aimed at isolating the Kremlin and making Moscow pay the economic price for continuing its war.
But Biden has been criticized for being too cautious throughout the war in providing the Ukrainians with some advanced lethal weapons in a timely manner and imposing restrictions on how they are used – initially resisting the Ukrainian president’s demands Volodymyr Zelenskyy to fire long-range ATACMS missiles. deep into Russian territory as well as requests for Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter jets and other systems.
Biden often hesitated, before finally giving in, fearing that it would be necessary to hold the line against an escalation that he feared could draw the United States and other NATO members into direct conflict with the Russia, equipped with nuclear weapons.
Trump, for his part, criticized the cost of the war to American taxpayers and pledged to bring a quick end to the conflict.
Biden said Friday he remained hopeful the United States would continue helping Ukraine after he leaves office.
“I know there are a significant number of Democrats and Republicans on the Hill who think we should continue to support Ukraine,” Biden said. “I hope they will speak out… if Trump decides to cut funding to Ukraine.”
Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland and adviser to Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, said Biden’s legacy in Ukraine will now be largely shaped by Trump.
He added that Trump may well succeed in bringing what many Americans can accept as “a decent end” to the war in Ukraine.
“It won’t necessarily happen, but it could happen,” Fried said. “And if he does, then the criticism of Biden will be that he acted to help Ukraine, but hesitated, procrastinated, did a lot of hand-wringing, and it took Trump to achieve a fair settlement. »
Sullivan argues that Trump, a billionaire real estate developer, should view support for Ukraine through the lens of a negotiator.
“Donald Trump built his identity around making deals, and the way to make a good deal is leverage,” Sullivan said. “Our argument, publicly and privately, to the incoming team is to create leverage, to show our ability to stay in place, to support Ukraine, and that’s where a good path lies. affair.”
Biden’s Middle East diplomacy overshadowed by Gaza devastation
In the Middle East, Biden stood with Israel as it worked to root out Hamas from Gaza. This war spawned another in Lebanon, where Israel mutilated Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful ally, even as Israel successfully launched airstrikes openly inside Iran to the first time.
The degradation of Hezbollah in turn played a role when Islamist-led rebels last month toppled longtime Syrian leader Bashar Assad, a brutal part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.”
Biden’s relationship with Israel’s conservative leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been strained by the huge Palestinian death toll from the fighting – which now stands at more than 46,000 – and by the Israeli blockade of the territory that has left much of Gaza a hellish landscape where access to food and basic health care is very limited.
Pro-Palestinian activists have demanded an arms embargo against Israel, but U.S. policy has remained largely unchanged. The State Department in recent days informed Congress of a proposed $8 billion arms sale to Israel.
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East negotiator, said that approach put Iran on its heels, but that Biden would pay a reputational price for the devastation of Gaza.
“The administration has been unable or unwilling to create any sort of constraint that normal humans would consider significant pressure,” Miller said. “Joe Biden lacked the emotional and political capacity to impose the type of sustained or meaningful pressure that could have led to a change in Israeli tactics. »
More than 15 months after the Hamas-led attack that sparked the war, around 98 hostages remain in Gaza. More than a third of them are presumed dead by Israeli authorities.
Biden’s Middle East adviser Brett McGurk is in the Middle East, seeking an elusive hostage and ceasefire deal as the presidency’s clock runs out. Trump, for his part, warns that “hell” will descend on Hamas if the hostages are not released before Inauguration Day.
Sullivan declined to comment on Trump’s threats against Hamas, but said both sides agreed on the most important thing: reaching a deal.
“Both the outgoing and incoming administration agree that a hostage agreement as soon as possible is in the American national interest,” he said. “Having unity of message on this is a good thing, and we have coordinated closely with the new team to this effect.”
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