A vague statement published Thursday by Hamas in response to a new Israeli proposal supported by the United States Once again, American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators are unsure how seriously they should take anything that does not come from Yehiya Sinwar, the military leader of the group believed to be hiding underground in southern Gaza.
The American strategy has always been to end the fighting, even briefly, with the hope that one ceasefire could lead to another, with more hostage releases, more humanitarian aid and the introduction of a plan to maintain order and rebuild Gaza d post-war period under the administration of the Palestinian Authority – all with the support of Arab countries. neighbors.
The promise of Arab participation, which the administration has been actively negotiating for months, is seen as an incentive for Israel to overcome its refusal – at least under the coalition government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – to consider a separate Palestinian state. . At the heart of this deal is an agreement by Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, which the United States would then reward with a new bilateral security partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
But none of that is likely to happen without an initial ceasefire agreement, according to U.S. and Arab officials who spoke on condition of anonymity about the sensitive diplomacy. Amid growing anxiety, there is no fallback plan – other than to try again and again – if this round of negotiations fails.
Although there is no official timetable for reaching an agreement, there are a number of deadlines.
Most immediate is the threat of an imminent Iranian strike in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of its consulate in Damascus, which killed at least seven Iranian officials and six Syrian civilians. Tehran has threatened to respond with attacks on Israeli and US facilities, which could trigger a cycle of regional escalation and put a damper on any hopes of a ceasefire.
Then there is the worry about the state of the hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 It is believed that 95 of them are still alive in Gaza. No proof of life was found during nearly 200 days of captivity. The latest ceasefire proposal calls for the release of women, children, the elderly and the wounded – numbering around 40 – in exchange for a much larger number of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. This would exclude Israeli soldiers and men detained by Hamas.
In his statement Thursday, Hamas politburo member Basem Naim suggested that 40 live hostages may not be available for release. “Part of the negotiations,” he said, “is to have enough time and security to collect…more precise data on Israelis captured” and detained “in different locations by different groups.” Some, he said, could find themselves “under the rubble” caused by Israeli bombing.
Since negotiations that resulted in a week-long ceasefire and the release of more than 100 hostages in November, Hamas has said it cannot comply with Israeli demands to list names, dates of birth and nationalities of the remaining prisoners, because he did not do so. I don’t know where they all are and I can’t locate them under Israeli attacks.
Recent media reports, including in Israel, have cast doubt on the survival of the hostages whose release Hamas is negotiating. But officials said negotiators continue to assume that releasing the first 40 — and potentially more — is still on the table.
“We are unable to verify this comment,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday of Naim’s statement. “We do not have enough details about where the hostages are and what condition they are in to verify this claim. …We need to get these hostages out.
Israel said it had confirmed that 34 hostages in Gaza had died. U.S. officials said three of them were Americans, but five U.S. citizens were among the 95 still alive.
“Hamas has engaged in the worst form of terrorism, not only torturing those who have been captured and held hostage, but also torturing their loved ones in limbo,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-D. of Del.) in a press release. an interview this week after meeting the families of the American hostages.
The assumption is that Hamas leaders are holding the hostages in underground tunnels and that the hostages are receiving little food and no medical care. Some of those released in November reported being beaten and sexually abused.
As Israel has expanded its offensive operations in recent months, Gaza’s population – civilians, Hamas militants and hostages – have been pushed into an increasingly restricted space in the southern part of the enclave, where Humanitarian organizations have described an increasingly dire situation.
As Israel has withdrawn troops from southern Gaza in recent days, it has bowed to U.S. and international pressure to facilitate increased amounts of humanitarian aid, even as aid organizations say the Israel Defense Forces are still blocking the distribution. “We’ll see what he does to fulfill the commitments he made to me,” President Biden said at a news conference Wednesday, referring to Netanyahu.
In testimony before Congress on Thursday, USAID Administrator Samantha Power said that despite Israeli denials, there are “credible” reports of imminent famine in Gaza.
But despite a recent lull in fighting and additional food aid deliveries, the lives of some 1.4 million Palestinian refugees in and around Rafah – as well as those of the hostages – would be at serious risk if Israel keeps its promise to launch an air and land offensive. offensive against the remaining Hamas battalions and leaders in the city.
Biden called the attack plan, which Netanyahu said this week he had already approved, a “mistake” and said he would have to reconsider U.S. policy toward Israel if it went ahead.
U.S. officials said they did not know whether Netanyahu’s statements were intended for domestic consumption or were a negotiating ploy aimed at getting Hamas to accept the ceasefire and l hostage agreement. Many Israeli troops have been withdrawn from Gaza – to rest and resupply, according to the Biden administration – and officials have said they have seen no active signs of military preparations that could support a major Rafah offensive before the month of May, at the earliest.
The administration continues its efforts to dissuade Israel from withdrawing. A meeting in Washington, requested by Biden, between senior US and Israeli officials to discuss the Rafah offensive and civilian resettlement is tentatively scheduled for next week; Netanyahu, furious that the United States abstained from a U.N. Security Council vote calling for an immediate ceasefire, canceled the call for that conversation this month.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is feeling pressure to end the conflict. Reports of famine, the death toll in Gaza which local health authorities say now exceeds 33,000 and the specter of an offensive on Rafah have put the president under increasing pressure at home – most of the share of the Democrats and the liberal electoral blocs on which it depends for the presidential election in November. elections – to declare an end to US arms sales in Israel.
The administration is also required to formally evaluate Israel’s assurances that its six-month military campaign did not violate U.S. or international humanitarian law. If the White House were to sign a clean bill of health, under current circumstances, it would likely increase the volume of domestic criticism.
Arab governments, including Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are also under pressure at home to demonstrate progress in exchange for their willingness to work with the United States on a long-term solution .
U.S. officials say much of the political and international tensions surrounding the fate of the hostages, the delivery of humanitarian aid, Israel’s conduct of the war and U.S. arms supplies would dissipate significantly if only they could to reach an agreement to stop the fighting – even temporarily. . This may be wishful thinking.
Late Friday morning, as a new night began in the Middle East, “we are still waiting for a response from Hamas,” Kirby said.
washingtonpost
