Belarusian opposition denounces Lukashenko and Sunday’s elections

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya refuses to call what is happening this weekend in Belarus an election.

“It’s a sham,” declares the opposition leader in exile. “This is a military-type operation; a performance staged by the regime to maintain power.”

For three decades, the country has been led by an increasingly authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko, now firmly supported by Vladimir Putin who is using his neighbor in his large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

This Sunday, Belarusians will once again see Lukashenko’s name on the ballot, along with four other names carefully chosen so as not to pose a challenge.

No independent observers are permitted.

Strict controls were put in place because the last time Belarusians voted for a president, the country was swept by giant protests.

In 2020, Alexander Lukashenko allowed Svetlana Tikhanovskaya to run against him, believing that a political novice – and a woman – would have no impact.

It was a huge miscalculation.

Tikhanovskaya, who decided to replace her husband after Lukashenko put him in prison, claimed victory.

When Lukashenko received 80% of the vote, crowds took to the streets in the biggest threat to his power yet. The protests were eventually put down by riot police with mass arrests and brutal force.

The European Union then refused to recognize Lukashenko’s legitimacy as president.

Today, all the key opposition figures from that era are in prison or have fled abroad, like Tikhanovskaya. Former protesters still present in Belarus have been silenced, frightened.

The opposition leader is therefore not encouraging them to take to the streets again on Sunday.

“We call on Belarusians to reject this sham and the international community to reject the result,” she told the BBC. “But I tell Belarusians that they must stay safe until the real moment when this is possible.

“Because people live in constant fear and the regime is now intensifying repression.”

You feel this fear immediately when you talk to Belarusians.

Many don’t want to talk publicly about politics at all. Others ask you to change your name and then choose their words carefully.

Some still in Belarus only chat via encrypted messages which they immediately delete.

All say open political activism in the country has disappeared.

Bysol, a non-profit organization that helps evacuate people in danger, reports a sharp increase in requests, around 30 to 40 requests per month.

Since 2020, the group has evacuated more than 1,500 people.

She also supports former political prisoners who are trying to rebuild their lives in exile after their release.

For Yana Zhuravleva, veterinarian, it was difficult.

Before 2020, she was dedicated to her work and not very politically active. But that summer, she joined the giant crowds, full of hope for change.

She was then sentenced to three years in prison for “serious violation of public order”.

“We would be punished for everything,” she remembers of her time in prison.

She estimates that about one in ten women were there because of the protests. Like them, Yana was added to the register of those “prone to extremism and destructive activities.”

“You can’t go to the gym, your only letters come from your relatives and you have fewer visiting rights. If you complain, you always hear the same response: remember why you are here,” she told me from Poland, where she moved after her recent release.

Yana admits that it took “titanic” strength not to fall into a deep depression.

“In prison, I barely cried. But when I was outside, I suddenly wanted to sob all the time, and I didn’t know why.”

Several people I contacted mentioned seeking psychological help after being questioned, threatened or imprisoned.

They describe a security service that tracks down anyone with the faintest connection to the opposition, then demands the names of everyone it arrests.

The pressure never lessened.

A woman in Belarus, who was monitoring human rights, tells me she had to stop attending court hearings because the authorities spotted her.

If they could prove a link to the banned human rights organization Viasna, it could be accused of being “extremist”.

“I can do some specific acts of support, but I have to be careful,” she told me on condition of anonymity.

“We feel a very strong feeling of helplessness when we see all this injustice.”

Viasna currently lists 1,256 political prisoners in Belarus. Dozens of people were recently granted amnesty, but they were quickly replaced.

For those who manage to escape the pressure cooker of Belarus, there is the added difficulty of knowing they may not return for a long time.

This is why Natalia, whose name has been changed, decided to stay in Belarus even after being arrested twice for participating in the protests.

“Once on the “refoulement” list, you are very vulnerable,” she explains.

“You can’t find work because you are registered in the police database and the authorities are always watching you.”

For Natalia, that meant being arrested again, initially for walking her dog without a leash.

“They claimed that I had been aggressive, that I had insulted loudly and waved my arms,” she recalls of her detention in 2023. She was detained for ten days with up to 14 people in a two-person cell. , with a light on constantly.

For more than a week, she slept on the floor.

“It really shook my sense of security, I became a lot more anxious,” says Natalia.

She is abroad at the moment and plans to return to her cats soon. But her neighbors say a police officer just went to her house to monitor any potential protesters ahead of Sunday’s vote.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya believes that the current repression shows that Lukashenko and his allies are afraid.

“The trauma of 2020 is still present and it must eliminate any possibility of uprising,” says the opposition leader.

“He knows that Belarusians have neither accepted nor forgiven him, and they still want change.”

But she admits there are few signs of that in the short term.

For some time after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Belarusians hoped that their neighbors would succeed in defeating Putin with Western help and that Lukashenko would then be toppled.

Some headed to the front themselves, choosing force after their peaceful protests failed.

But Ukraine’s military is now struggling to hold on, and President Donald Trump is pushing for peace talks.

“The democratic world cannot make concessions to Putin,” says Tikhanovskaya, describing Lukashenko as equally dangerous for the world.

He let Russia launch missiles at Ukraine from Belarus and send its tanks through its territory.

It also allowed the free movement of migrants towards the Polish border and towards the EU.

“It allows Putin to deploy nuclear weapons and his army in Belarus, and the path to Poland and Lithuania is very short,” Tikhanovskaya emphasizes.

“He and Putin are a couple and they support other dictators. He is part of this chain of evil.”

There is no doubt that the reinstatement of Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday will go according to plan.

“These people are very capable,” explains Yana, the former political prisoner.

“They really crushed the potential for protest.”

She is now trying to return to her profession as a veterinarian, but in Poland, and to recover from three difficult years behind bars.

Those I spoke with now speak of Lukashenko’s retirement, or his death, as their greatest hope for democracy.

In the meantime, many are changing direction: there is a renewed interest in the revival of Belarusian culture and language, a cause of opposition. This is what many dare to do in such circumstances.

“No one says it openly, but we have the impression that there is no perspective. There is depression,” Natalia admits.

But there are no obvious regrets.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s life has changed dramatically since she entered politics.

Cut off from his country, her husband is also a political prisoner – kept in total isolation for almost two years.

The opposition leader insists she “really believes” in change.

“2020 was a huge change in mentality in Belarus. I don’t know how long it will take, but this change will not disappear.”