The real test will come later, when the 2025 finance bill returns to Parliament, which could lead to a new vote of no confidence at the end of January. It is then likely that the far right will vote against the government. Bayrou will therefore have to eliminate enough left-wing deputies to survive without alienating the conservatives and Macron’s troops who support pension reform.
On Sunday, conservative parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez fired a warning shot, threatening to withdraw support for the Bayrou government, which includes conservatives, if it granted too many concessions to the left.
In his speech, Bayrou said pension reform was necessary given France’s staggering budget deficit, which stood at 6.2% of gross domestic product for 2024. “Tango” with a debt that “brought us on the edge of the precipice.
The center left and the conservatives seem appeased for the moment.
But just as Barnier was ultimately ousted after seeking to build bridges with the far right, leaving France without an adequate budget for 2025, Bayrou could also be eliminated if the mood changes within the moderate left as he attempts to reduce the budget deficit.
His government would then be the fourth French government to fall in the past year, which could have catastrophic consequences for French finances and the stability of the euro zone.
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