AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting, with virtually no change in its statement. The Dot Plot showed three more rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were improved with higher growth and inflation and lower unemployment.
• U.S. first-quarter GDP surprisingly beat expectations, although its main components nonetheless showed a strong economy. Core PCE, however, was surprised on the upside, pushing rate cuts further.
• The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI was in line with forecasts.
• U.S. NFP beat expectations across the board, although average hourly earnings were in line with forecasts.
• US April PMIs missed expectations, with commentary pointing to weaker inflationary pressures but also an increase in layoffs.
• The market expects a first rate cut in September.

EUR

• The RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally abandoned its tightening bias.
• The CPI report beat expectations across the board thanks to strong core inflation measures.
• The latest labor market report did not meet expectations.
• The Wage Price Index surprised to the upside as Australia’s wage growth remains strong.
• The latest Australian PMIs showed the manufacturing PMI almost returning to expansion, while the services PMI was down slightly, remaining in expansion.
• The market expects a first rate cut in February 2025.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeline

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD has managed to rally up to the key resistance zone around the 0.6520 level. This is where sellers will look for shorting opportunities on lower time frames, while buyers will want to see the price continue to rise to increase bullish bets in the major trendline around the 0.66 handle .

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart we can see that we have a trendline defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. If we get a pullback into the trendline, buyers will likely rely on it with risk set below to position themselves for a rally towards the 0.66 handle. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price fall to accumulate and position themselves for a fall to new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

On the hourly chart, we can see that price is starting to diverge with the MACD, which is usually a sign of weakening momentum, often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, this could be a signal of a pullback into the trendline where buyers will look to buy the dip. If the price were to fall below the trendline, a reversal would be confirmed and sellers would have a much greater chance of pushing the price to new lows.

Events to come

Today we wrap up the week with the US PCE report.