AUDUSD buyers failed again. Stronger US data sends the pair back down with MAs targeted

The AUDUSD bottomed for 2024 on the very last day of the trading year (which is unique). The price bounced higher off that low and in doing so was able to extend above a swing area off the daily chart between 0.6269 to 0.6282. See the red numbered circles on the chart below.

The AUD/USD moved above a key swing area yesterday, driven by USD selling following a Washington Post article suggesting Trump tariffs might be less severe than expected. However, Trump denied the report, causing the pair to reverse lower in a failed breakout. The price rebounded during Asian-Pacific and early European trading, once again breaking above the swing area near 0.6282. For the second consecutive day, though, momentum stalled.

Stronger U.S. economic data today, including JOLTS job openings and ISM non-manufacturing figures (particularly the prices component), pushed yields higher, stocks lower, and the AUD/USD back toward the day’s lows.

What’s next?

• Downside: The next key target is the converging 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 0.6226 (blue and green lines on the chart below). A test of this level will be critical in determining the pair’s next move.
• Upside: For buyers to regain control, the price needs to move back above the swing area on the daily chart up to 0.6282, offering hope for a recovery and potentially slowing the seller’s momentum.