This is a case of data mismatch for the Aussie and the Greenback this week. The former saw stiffer inflation numbers here, while the latter saw weaker PMI numbers here. This was enough to close the gap on the divergent outlooks between the RBA and the Fed. In turn, this helped AUD/USD maintain a strong rebound over the week. So what does the chart say now?
AUD/USD daily chart
The pair initially saw its upside limited by the 200-day moving average (blue line) earlier this week. But today, this key level has been broken and buyers are even pushing the price above the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level of this month’s decline – seen at 0.6536. Stay above these two levels and the bullish momentum may continue.
The next key technical resistance will only come at the 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6584 currently.
However, for trading, be wary as we still have a big hurdle to overcome. The US PCE Price Index will be released later today. But in this case, the balance of risks could well favor a continuation of a weaker dollar. We will see.
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