As parts of the East Coast still recover from the destruction caused by the remnants of Hurricane Debby, the next Atlantic front is developing into a potential tropical storm.
Potential tropical cyclone five was forming 875 miles east-southeast of Antigua and moving west-northwest at 23 mph, with several Caribbean islands, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, in its potential path, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest “probable track” forecast.
The potential hurricane has gained strength quickly enough that the center says it will likely become a tropical storm by late Monday. If so, Ernesto could be the name of the next Atlantic storm.
If the front strengthens enough (it will need sustained winds of 74 mph or more), it will become the third hurricane of the season. So far, the National Hurricane Center has not indicated that the front is heading toward hurricane status.
The potential hurricane was producing maximum sustained winds of 30 mph Sunday night. It would need maximum sustained winds of 39 mph to become a tropical storm. It would be the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season so far, as its provisional name indicates.
The potential cyclone has prompted a 48-hour tropical storm watch in the United States, which in this case warns of possible strong winds, high waves and potential flooding of up to 6 inches of rain for the following Caribbean islands: Guadeloupe, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Martin and Sint Maarten.
According to information from the hurricane center, the front is expected to reach these islands by Tuesday afternoon.
Additionally, the center is warning people in the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico — all west of the Caribbean islands under tropical storm watch — to watch for the front, which could hit them early Wednesday.
The federal government’s projected path takes the front into the Caribbean region, but then turns directly north into the Atlantic, keeping it off the coast of the U.S. mainland for now.
The formation of the potential hurricane appears to be consistent with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which concludes that there is a 90 percent chance of an above-normal number of storms by the end of the season in November.
Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast is similar, indicating that near-record warmth in the tropical Atlantic is largely fueling storm development.
“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a dynamic and thermodynamic environment much more conducive to the formation and intensification of hurricanes,” the institution said in its latest forecast, released Sunday.
He added: “We are forecasting a much higher than average probability of major hurricane landfall.”
