As usual, it is opinions about Trump that guide opinions about his actions, not the other way around.

By the time Mueller got to work, Trump’s support base was already heavily unfavorable to the outcome. Over the next 20 months, as new details were reported and once Mueller finally revealed the results of his investigation, opinions about Trump’s actions and the investigation itself remained largely unchanged. Democrats thought Trump had done untoward or illegal things; The Republicans did not do it.

When Trump was later impeached on unrelated charges, the same pattern played out. Trump didn’t have as much time as he did for Mueller’s final report, but he had already instilled in his supporters a sense that he had done nothing wrong and that claims to the contrary were rooted in politics. So even though the impeachment inquiry undertaken by the House clearly demonstrated that he attempted to pressure Ukraine into helping him with his re-election in 2020, partisan and overall views on his actions were stubbornly consistent.

Since Trump was first indicted on criminal charges last year, there have been rumors that this situation could perhaps be a trend-breaker. Wasn’t it possible that Trump, faced with a criminal trial, would eventually see his base turn against him – or at least erode?

It’s possible, yes. But so far there is no indication that this will be the case.

On Wednesday, Quinnipiac University released polling data on the ongoing Manhattan trial, the one centered on Trump’s reimbursement to his then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, for Cohen’s $130,000 payment to an adult film actress before the 2016 election. Quinnipiac found that nearly three-quarters of Americans said they were following news of the trial at least somewhat closely, with little difference between the parties in the percentage of follow very closely.

However, when pollsters asked respondents whether they considered accusations of falsifying business records to be serious, Republicans were much less likely to do so. (The full question included mention of the secret payment, for what it’s worth.) Interestingly, respondents who said they weren’t following news of the trial closely were less likely to characterize the charges as very serious, but just as likely to say they were at least a little serious.

This has been the case for some time: Republicans are less likely to view the charges against Trump as serious in general, and they find the charges in Manhattan to be even less serious.

Quinnipiac also asked whether those surveyed thought Trump had committed a crime or whether he had simply behaved unethically. Democrats believed he had violated the law. A plurality of Republicans said he did nothing wrong.

Those paying less attention to the trial were less likely than those paying the most attention to say that Trump did nothing wrong – reinforcing the fact that many of those paying close attention to the trial are Trump supporters and Republicans. They follow the news but are not convinced by what they have seen, perhaps because of where they follow the news.

There were interesting divisions within partisan groups along gender lines. Only a third of Republican women said Trump did nothing wrong, compared with more than half of Republican men. Among independents, women were nearly 20 points more likely to say Trump broke the law, while men were 20 points more likely to say he acted unethically. Women were also more likely than men to view the charges as very serious, by double digits, regardless of party.

Survey questions that ask respondents whether an issue makes them more or less likely to support a candidate are notoriously misleading. If a Democrat is asked whether question .

With that in mind, it’s still worth examining the responses when Quinnipiac asked whether a conviction would change the way people think about voting for president. Most respondents – probably rightly so! – said it wouldn’t change their vote. Those who paid the most attention, however, were more likely to say their vote would change, perhaps reflecting interest in the matter from more partisan observers.

Just over a third of Democrats, for example, said a conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump, although Quinnipiac also found that only 6% of Democrats said they would vote for him first place. A third of Republicans said they would be more likely to vote for Trump if he were convicted, even though 90% of them had already indicated they were considering doing so.

Some of the Republicans who say they would vote for Trump even if he were convicted correspond to the fifth of Trump supporters who, in a Siena College poll last month, said they thought he had committed crimes. serious federal crimes. In other words, for many Trump supporters, it’s not that they don’t believe the accusations against him, but rather that they don’t care.

Given all of this, the safest default assumption remains that the Manhattan trial — like the Mueller investigation and the 2019 impeachment — will have little effect on Trump’s political standing.