As the U.S. lockdown begins to take hold, how could this affect the economy?

Michael Galletly, who works for the Utah Department of Agriculture, sat down with his wife last week, reviewing bills and spending more than two hours strategizing how to survive the government shutdown.

The outlook – uncertain.

“I could last two months, maybe three lean, very lean months,” said Mr. Galletly, an IT management specialist placed on unpaid leave this month who is also president of Local 4016 of the American Federation of Government Employees. “But I don’t know how long it will last.”

The standoff has already hampered travel, delayed government approval for permits and loans and closed some museums.

As millions of federal workers begin missing paychecks this week and respond by cutting spending, analysts say the impact will begin to be felt more widely.

“We are reaching this critical inflection point in terms of the government shutdown and its consequences for the economy as a whole,” said Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Management.

There are already signs that business and consumer confidence fell, a possible indicator of economic weakness to come.

Analysts said the delay or suspension of key economic data releases, like the monthly jobs report, adds to uncertainty, prompting businesses to pause spending decisions and increasing the risk of error as policymakers act without the best information.

In Utah, Mr. Galletly said he began pulling out purchases before the shutdown, abandoning plans to buy a trailer, opting for a used laptop for his daughter and postponing plans to replace windows, including one that leaked.

Now, with the prospect of missing his first paycheck next week, he applied for unemployment insurance and contacted the banks holding his mortgage and car loan, hoping for housing.

“A lot of people tend to look at these things and just hope for the best,” he said. “Having been through this before – this is my third government shutdown as a federal employee – I simply cannot afford to do this.”

The impact of government shutdowns on the economy is generally temporary and limited – much like the disruptions caused by a hurricane or major storm.

Analysts this year forecast quarterly growth of around 0.2 percentage points per week, or about $15 billion (£11.2 billion), much of which would be offset after the shutdown ends, when federal workers typically receive back pay.

This year’s shock, however, carries unusual risks.

The Trump administration is threatening unprecedented action, including denying workers back pay and permanent layoffs, which it began initiating last week.

And that struggle collides with a slowing economy, in which businesses and households were already concerned about tariffs, changes to immigration rules and previous cuts in government spending.

“We’ve already rolled the dice a lot this year,” said Michael Zdinak, economic director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“So while the impact of a short shutdown should be minimal, a prolonged government shutdown is just another opportunity we are seizing that could derail the steady growth trend we have experienced over the past two years.”

In recent days, the Trump administration has taken steps to alleviate some of the economic pain, overhauling government payments to ensure that service members continue to receive their pay and that some key food programs maintain funding.

But the moves also dimmed hopes for a resolution, eliminating some of the pressure points that were supposed to get the two sides talking about how to resolve their spending differences.

“If the shutdown extends into next week, we will be venturing into uncharted territory,” Wells Fargo analysts wrote recently, noting that most previous shutdowns, especially longer ones, were much more limited in scope.

S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates that the unemployment rate could reach 4.8% if the lockdown continues until October 18, a significant jump from the 4.3% rate.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers recently estimated that a month-long shutdown could result in a $30 billion loss in consumer spending, in part because of the impact on government contractors, who number in the millions and are not eligible for back pay if their work is affected.

Allison, whose husband is employed by the Department of Defense in Ohio and now works without pay, said her family of five had already canceled their typical fall weekend in Michigan, opting instead for a day trip to save money.

Although Allison works for the state, her husband is the primary breadwinner.

The 43-year-old, who asked the BBC not to publish his full name fearing it would expose him to political attacks, said his family had little room to maneuver in their budget after the cost of living rose in recent years.

When the shutdown began, they immediately contacted the bank to ask if they could defer their mortgage payment to November. She fears that a prolonged shutdown will force her children to abandon extracurricular activities.

“If this continues into December, I don’t know what we’re going to do,” she said.

The federal government employs personnel throughout the United States, leaving few parts of the country unscathed.

But the Washington, D.C. region, which was already grappling with the consequences of previous cuts in jobs and government spending, is expected to face some of the most severe repercussions.

During the equally sweeping 2013 shutdown, consumer spending in the metro area fell 5 percentage points overall, compared to 0.7 percentage points overall, according to FiServ.

“The word ‘stop’ doesn’t give anyone the opportunity to be a vibrant consumer,” said Daniel Kramer, managing partner of popular D.C. restaurants Duke’s Grocery and Duke’s Counter.

He said sales at Duke’s Counter, located near the National Zoo, have dropped more than 50% since the destination closed its doors to visitors a few days ago.

“It’s not just federal workers and contractors who are affected here. It’s the entire ecosystem,” he said.