Apple’s Vision Pro is amazing, but no one wants it

After much anticipation and fanfare, Apple presented its contribution to the mixed reality headset market in February 2024. Without a doubt, the Vision Pro is a remarkable technological feat. Apple believed this was the product that would give the company a dominant position in spatial computing, the merging of the physical and digital worlds. However, the market has not embraced the Vision Pro and recent news from Apple suggests that they are reviewing their roadmap. What happened to Apple’s dream of mass adoption of spatial computing and what can we learn from it?

At first the experience is nothing short of wow

Spend 30 minutes at an Apple store demoing Vision Pro and you’ll see what a marvel of computing and engineering it is. Its specifications are extraordinary: two 23 million pixel OLED screens, 12 cameras, five sensors, six microphones and an M2 chip. Phew!

Apple has managed to pack a lot into such a small space, and the sensory experience exceeds expectations. For example, in the demo, a user is transported to a rehearsal room with Alicia Keys and her band, and the experience is almost magical. This alone is well worth the 30-minute demo.

Using the Vision Pro as a computer allows the user to open multiple virtual screens of their favorite applications. These screens appear suspended in front of the user and each can be easily zoomed in and out. Interaction includes special hand gestures, such as pinching and swiping, and many actions incorporate eye movements.

The interaction with the device is convincing, offers a familiar Apple user interface and the performance of each action feels natural and responsive.

Is there a market for spatial computing today?

Apple had bet that this rich, immersive and virtual experience would represent the next generation of computing platform and that, thanks to its reputation for design and usability, it would quickly establish itself as a leader. Despite a phenomenal track record of product success, Apple missed the mark with this high-profile release. What exactly did they do?

Apple’s Vision Pro wasn’t the first in this category. And far from it. The first virtual reality (VR) headsets for computing and virtual reality (VR) date back to the 1960s.

More recently, in 2016, Sony released its PlayStation VR headsets and in 2018, Meta launched its Oculus Go. Although primarily aimed at the gaming market, Sony and Meta have both had reasonable success, with 5 and 20 million, respectively. units sold to date. Recently, sales have slowed considerably, with Sony even halting production while current stocks run out.

Microsoft’s venture into virtual reality with its highly touted HoloLens found limited success in an enterprise context, but ultimately ended its mixed reality efforts in 2023.

Leaders like Sony, Meta, and Microsoft, for all their resources and marketing influence, have discovered a truth: the size of the VR headset market, while not insignificant, is narrow and niche.

Did Apple and its offices full of analysts have access to market data that others did not have access to?

It seems Apple was betting that with an innovative product and a much broader set of uses, they could create a mass market in spatial computing. To Apple’s credit, its reputation for creating massive market demand has been impressive when considering products such as the iPod, iPad, and iPhone, which have collectively shipped billions of units.

However, this year, Apple now expects to sell only about 450,000 Vision Pros, far short of its first-year goal of 800,000. Compare that to the 73 million iPads Apple sold in their first year.

Most glaring on the first day was the price of the Vision Pro. Starting at $3,500, that figure eclipsed, say, the Meta headset, which cost around $500. Sure, the features aren’t quite fair, but Apple’s price wasn’t even close.

A small market and a high price weren’t the only obstacles Apple faced.

Innovative technology is not enough to succeed in the market

By offering a wide range of interesting uses, Apple was betting that large numbers of people would adopt spatial computing for their daily work, learning, and entertainment needs. Making this happen required a significant change in behavior. The evidence from other vendors simply didn’t support this and it happened the same way for Apple.

Soon after purchasing and overcoming the novelty factor, many users began thinking about how they could use the device. This was made worse by the lack of Vision Pro specific apps and support. It’s no surprise that Apple has seen a high number of returns and several units have appeared on sites like eBay.

The interest typically generated by a new Apple product also quickly waned. Social media mentions and Google searches dropped sharply in just a few weeks.

Another tough issue to solve was the form factor. While wearing a headset to play a game or work out for a short period of time might be acceptable, wearing a headset for hours to surf the web or watch a movie wasn’t convincing. Many users reported that the headset didn’t offer a convincing improvement over their traditional setups.

It also doesn’t help that the Vision Pro is heavy (1.4 pounds). That’s a lot of weight to strap around your head without discomfort for a while. Many people have also reported health problems, including motion sickness, black eyes, headaches, and eye strain from prolonged use. Many of these issues are common complaints about the VR headset modality.

What’s next for Spacial Computing and Vision Pro?

The first generation of Apple’s Vision Pro has a lot to offer and it must be said that it has many enthusiastic users. Anyone using the device for the first time is quickly struck by the fact that the experience feels like a big step forward.

But disappointing sales results from Apple and other vendors clearly suggest that, in its current form, spatial computing does not yet represent a mass market opportunity.

Cutting-edge technology alone is not enough to succeed in the market.

Reportedly, while Apple doesn’t plan to follow through with this Vision Pro model, the company isn’t abandoning spatial computing and a less expensive, fewer feature-packed product could emerge within a year or two . By then the market may be ready and the interesting uses will be more obvious.

For spatial computing to succeed in the mass market, it must solve problems and create experiences in a way that is affordable and with a form factor that is no more intrusive than wearing a pair of ordinary glasses.

The first prize, however, will go to the company that finally manages to create an immersive experience that does not require a headset.

Holodeck, are you interested?