Apparent strikes and counterattacks by Israel and Iran provide new insight into the two militaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Israel demonstrated its military dominance over Iran’s adversary in its apparent precision strikes that struck military and nuclear targets close to the country’s heartland, meeting few major challenges from Iranian defenses and giving the world a new insight into both armies. ‘abilities.

The international community, Israel and Iran have all expressed hope that Friday’s airstrikes would end what has been a dangerous 19-day series of strikes and counterattacks, a highly public test between two deep rivals who had until now stopped short of a direct confrontation.

The shift to open fighting began on April 1 with Israel’s alleged killing of Iranian generals at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. That prompted Iran to launch a retaliatory strike last weekend of more than 300 missiles and drones that the United States, Israel and its regional and international partners helped bring down without significant damage in Israel. And then came Friday’s apparent Israeli strike.

As all sides took stock, regional security experts predicted that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government and its allies would emerge encouraged by the Israeli military’s superior performance. However, in response to international calls, Israel and Iran appeared to hold back all of their military forces throughout the two weeks of hostilities, aiming to send messages rather than escalate into a full-blown war. ladder.

Crucially, experts also warned that Iran failed to bring its biggest military advantage over Israel – Hezbollah and other Iran-allied armed groups in the region – into the main battle. Hezbollah in particular is capable of straining Israel’s ability to defend itself, particularly in any multifrontal conflict.

Overall, “the big lesson is that unless Iran does absolutely everything at its disposal in one fell swoop, it will only be the David, not the Goliath, in this equation,” said lead researcher and longtime researcher Charles Lister. regional researcher at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington.

Aside from these Iranian proxy forces, “the Israelis have every advantage at every military level,” Lister said.

In Friday’s attack, Iranian state television said the country’s air defense batteries fired in several provinces following reports of drones. Iranian army commander General Abdolrahim Mousavi said the crews targeted several flying objects.

Lister said it appears to be a single mission carried out by a small number of Israeli aircraft. After crossing Syrian airspace, they appear to have fired only two or three Blue Sparrow air-to-ground missiles at Iran, probably from a safe position in the airspace of neighboring Iraq. Iran, he said.

Iran said its air defenses fired on a major air base near Isfahan. Isfahan is also home to sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including its underground Natanz enrichment site, which has repeatedly been the target of suspected Israeli sabotage attacks.

Israel took responsibility for neither the April 1 nor Friday strikes.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, a Washington-based center that promotes security ties between Israel and the United States, was quick to point out that Friday’s small strike showed that Israel could cause far more damage “if he decides to launch a larger strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.” .”

By contrast, Iran’s barrage last weekend appears to have exhausted most of its 150 long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, more than 1,000 miles away, said retired Gen. Frank McKenzie. , former commander of the United States Army. Central command.

Particularly given the distance involved and the ease with which the United States and other countries can track missile deployments through aerial space sensors and regional radar, “it is difficult for Iran to launch a thunderbolt against Israel,” McKenzie said.

The Israelis, for their part, have “shown that Israel can now strike Iran from its soil with missiles, perhaps even drones,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute.

Meanwhile, Iran’s performance on Friday may have raised doubts about its ability to defend itself against such an attack, Vatanka said. Iran is about 80 times larger than Israel and therefore has much more territory to defend, he noted.

Moreover, Israel demonstrated that it could rally the support of powerful regional and international countries, both Arab and Western, to defend itself against Iran.

The United States played a leading role in helping Israel neutralize the Iranian missile and drone attack on April 13. Jordan and Gulf countries reportedly provided varying degrees of assistance, including sharing information about impending strikes.

The two weeks of hostilities also provided the greatest demonstration of Israel’s growing ability to work with Arab nations, its former enemies, as part of U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East.

Under the Trump administration, the United States transferred responsibility for its military coordination with Israel to Central Command, which already handled U.S. military coordination with Arab countries. The Biden administration has worked to deepen relations.

But while the exchange of Israeli-Iranian strikes revealed more about Iran’s military capabilities, Lebanon-based Hezbollah and other Iran-allied armed groups in Iraq and Syria appeared to largely stay at home. the gap.

Hezbollah is one of the most powerful armies in the region, with tens of thousands of experienced fighters and a massive arsenal of weapons.

After an intense war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006 that killed more than a thousand Lebanese civilians and dozens of Israeli civilians, both sides avoided escalating into another large-scale conflict. But Israeli and Hezbollah soldiers continue to regularly fire on each other during the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Hezbollah “is Iran’s only remaining potential advantage in this whole larger equation,” Lister said.

Six months of fighting in Gaza have “completely strained” the Israeli army, he said. “If Hezbollah went all out and launched the vast majority of its arsenal of rockets and missiles at Israel, all at once, the Israelis would have a serious problem dealing with this. »

And in terms of ground forces, if Hezbollah suddenly opened a second front, the Israel Defense Forces “would be incapable at this point” of fighting both Hezbollah and Hamas head-on, he said.